Watch Bitcoin in Q2 After War and Money Flow Signals Returns Beat Gold and S&P 500, Await New Fed Chair to Support Policy

Bitazza Thailand forecasts that Bitcoin will likely continue to recover in the second quarter, following the recent conflict between Iran and the United States. Investors see it as a risk hedge asset, enabling Bitcoin to outperform the US stock market and gold. At the same time, attention must be paid to the appointment of the new US Federal Reserve chair in May, the progress of crypto regulations, and investment trends in technology companies.

Thanawat Suttantiwarakun, Chief Executive Officer of Bitazza Company Limited, outlined the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in the second quarter of this year. After Bitcoin suffered five consecutive months of negative returns, it recently reached $76,000. The main supporting factors during this period include:

• Global investors continue to view Bitcoin as a war risk hedge in the Middle East. Since the attacks began on 28 February, Bitcoin has returned 12%, while the S&P 500 returned 2%, and gold declined by 9%. If peace negotiations progress positively, risk assets may receive further support.
  
  
• There has been renewed buying of Bitcoin through ETFs after investors sold gold, which had previously reached new highs, and shifted to Bitcoin at more attractive prices. Additionally, giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley launched their own Bitcoin ETFs. Given Bitcoin’s five-month price decline, it is unlikely to remain negative for much longer, even amid a sluggish market, so price recovery can be expected.

Factors to watch in the second quarter include:

• The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the US Federal Reserve chair in May. Although Warsh has a positive attitude toward crypto, if monetary policy remains tight with no rate cuts, the market may remain concerned. However, if he officially assumes the role and signals monetary easing, it would be positive for Bitcoin.
  
  
• Progress on the US CLARITY Act, a law to regulate the crypto market similarly to traditional financial markets. If enacted, confidence in the crypto market would increase, attracting more capital inflows.
  
  
• The IPOs of major tech companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Some liquidity may be diverted from the market to invest in these firms, but this could also spark investment trends in technology assets, including Bitcoin.

Recently, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached new highs again, which is a positive factor supporting the crypto market.

“Risks to watch include ongoing volatility in the Middle East conflict. Even if the US and Iran negotiate peace, global geopolitical issues will continue to cause fluctuations in financial markets. Investors need strict discipline and consistent risk management of their portfolios,” Thanawat Suttantiwarakun said.

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