The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) views that the electric vehicle price war will continue into 2026, as many BEV brands remain active in the Thai market. Expanding the customer base is also important because it establishes channels for revenue from after-sales services and maintenance.
Mr. Surapong Paisitpattanapong, Advisor to the Chairman of the Automotive Industry Group and Spokesperson for the Automotive Industry Group of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), expressed gratitude to the Bank of Thailand for lowering the policy interest rate. This reduction eases the burden on borrowers and hire-purchase customers, allowing them to repay principal faster and have more funds for essential purchases. Consequently, production standards improve, factories increase output, employment grows, and citizens' incomes rise, marking the beginning of economic growth.
Domestic vehicle sales this year are likely to reach the target of 600,000 units, driven by a positive factor: vehicle bookings at the recent Motor Expo 2025 reached about 75,000 units, the second-highest number ever recorded. However, attention must be paid to delivery capacity, as November production was over 130,000 units, which is below expectations.
Thailand exports vehicles to over 100 countries worldwide, with primary markets in Asia accounting for 28.5%, Australia and Oceania at 27%, and the Middle East at 21%. However, signs of slowdown are emerging in some markets, especially Australia, where exports have dropped by 16%.
This decline is due to intense competition from Chinese vehicles and Australia's enforcement of carbon emission laws starting 1 July 2025, which may result in penalties for non-compliant vehicles. Consequently, Thailand must accelerate efforts to export electric pickup trucks to Australia.
Mr. Surapong added that although the domestic EV market remains bright, overall production from January to November has slightly decreased by 1.64%, mainly due to reduced exports of internal combustion engine vehicles amid the global economic slowdown. The production target for 2026 is around 1.45 million units, focusing on smart and clean-energy vehicles as the industry's driving force.
"We believe the electric vehicle price war in Thailand will continue, as price reductions attract customers. While combustion engine vehicles have seen some price cuts, they are less intense than those for BEVs because electric cars have only become popular in the past 4-5 years. Furthermore, many new brands have entered the market, increasing competition. The outcome depends on which brands have better production costs—that is, can produce cheaper vehicles—and which marketing strategies gain popularity to build a larger customer base. This base generates revenue from services, spare parts, and repair centers. Ultimately, it depends on each company's strategy and policy," he said.
Regarding the overall EV situation, we estimate that after the EV 3.0 incentive program ends—providing a 150,000 baht discount per 100% battery electric vehicle in 2025—the EV 3.5 program will continue, offering a 100,000 baht subsidy per unit. Excise tax on EVs will remain reduced from 8% to 2%, keeping EV prices competitive. However, lithium-ion battery prices have recently increased to 90,000 yuan per ton from 60,000-70,000 yuan mid-year.
The impact on selling prices depends on whether innovations can offset lithium-ion costs, such as sodium-ion batteries, which are cheaper and are now being mass-produced to potentially replace lithium-ion. Nonetheless, BEV sales are expected to remain close to this year's figures, around 110,000-120,000 units.
In November 2025, vehicle production totaled 130,222 units, an 11.06% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This includes 9,624 electric passenger cars, a surge of 1,974.14%, and 66 electric pickup trucks, doubling production from the previous year.
Domestic vehicle sales in November 2025 rose 20.65% year-on-year to 51,044 units. This included 10,569 battery electric vehicles (BEVs), up 91.50%, and 74 electric pickup trucks, a 100% increase.
Exports in November 2025 dropped 12.22% year-on-year to 78,692 units. Electric passenger car exports doubled to 2,830 units, and electric pickup truck exports also doubled to 45 units.