Gartner forecasts that by 2026, there will be 116 million electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide, including cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks. EVs are expected to grow by 30%, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will increase by 32%.
Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director of Analysis at Gartner, said that despite the U.S. government imposing tariffs on vehicle imports and several governments around the world withdrawing subsidies and incentives for EV purchases,
it is expected that by 2026, the number of electric vehicles on the road will still rise by 30%. Next year, China will remain the market leader, accounting for 61% of total EV volume, while global PHEV numbers are projected to increase by 32% year-on-year as customers value the confidence provided by a gasoline backup engine.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to continue making up more than half of all electric vehicles, yet an increasing share of customers are choosing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Global electric vehicle volumes by vehicle type between 2025 and 2026 (actual units).
Overall, in 2025, there will be approximately 89,554,951 electric vehicles, projected to increase to 116,179,563 units in 2026.
The factors supporting these forecasts include:
Rapid regional market changes Demand for electric vehicles in China has risen significantly since the last forecast. Increased competition has lowered domestic manufacturers' prices, driving demand from 13.4 million units to 16.5 million units in 2026. Additional investment plans in EV charging infrastructure also support this growth.
However, governments are intervening to reduce manufacturer discounts and subsidies. Meanwhile, in the U.S. market, demand has dropped due to tariffs on vehicle imports and the withdrawal of subsidies and incentives for EV purchases.
Technology integration Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) still represent over half of total EV sales, but Gartner has revised its 2026 forecast down from 77% to 63% due to slower-than-expected BEV adoption.
Nonetheless, more customers are choosing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), valuing the reassurance of a gasoline engine backup to handle rapid changes.
Leading EV manufacturer BYD emphasizes offering and selling PHEV models, including a growing subgroup of PHEVs equipped with gasoline engines to power generators for battery charging.
These range extender vehicles operate solely on electric powertrains but provide a smoother and more consistent EV driving experience.
Regulatory factors as key drivers Automakers are developing electric vehicles primarily to meet regulatory pressure from governments concerned about air quality and climate change, rather than direct consumer demand. Many governments have signaled plans to gradually phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
They intend to stop approving new vehicles with ICE drivetrains to reduce particulate matter (PM) and CO2 emissions from vehicles. PM emissions from ICE vehicles are seen as a major contributor to poor air quality and climate change.