The last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire this Thursday, raising concerns about a new arms buildup competition between the two nations.
Foreign news agencies reported on 4 Feb 2026 that the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as "New START," signed by the US and Russia in 2010, is one of the few agreements designed to prevent nuclear war.
This treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each side to no more than 1,550 warheads. It also established transparency mechanisms, including data exchanges, notifications, and on-site inspections.
The treaty's expiration marks a significant end to arms control cooperation between Washington and Moscow, a partnership that once helped end the Cold War.
Last Wednesday, Pope Leo XIV urged the US and Russia to renew the treaty, stating that the current global situation "forces us to do everything possible to avoid a new wave of arms buildup competition."
The original START treaty, signed in 1991 by the US and the Soviet Union, banned each side from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads. This was followed by the New START treaty signed in 2010 in Prague by the US and Russia, as successor states to the dissolved Soviet Union.
Although Russia suspended its participation in the treaty three years ago due to rising tensions from the Ukraine war, it is believed that both countries continue to adhere to the treaty's terms.
The agreement helped prevent uncontrolled nuclear arms buildup and provided transparency measures between the world's two largest nuclear arsenals to avoid misjudging each other's intentions.
The treaty's expiration follows a worrying pattern, as other long-standing arms control treaties have already been allowed to expire.
These include the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement, which played a crucial role in eliminating short-range nuclear weapons deployments in Europe.
The Open Skies Treaty allowed signatories, including the US and Russia, to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other's territories to monitor military forces.
Also, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty limited the number of tanks, troops, and artillery systems that Russian and NATO forces could deploy in Europe.
Last Wednesday, a senior advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin stated he intends to "act appropriately and responsibly" if the treaty expires.
However, later that same day, Russia's Foreign Ministry declared that "under current circumstances, we consider the parties to the New START treaty no longer bound by its obligations or declarations under the treaty's framework, including its main provisions, and in principle, each side is free to decide its next steps."
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump seemed less concerned, telling The New York Times last month, "If it expires, let it expire... We'll make a better deal later."
Washington believes any future arms control agreement should include China, which is also rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, while Russia thinks such agreements should also cover France and the United Kingdom, Europe's nuclear powers.
Daria Dolsikova, a senior researcher at the Nuclear Weapons and Non-Proliferation Policy Program at the UK's RUSI institute, said the New START treaty's expiration is "worrisome because both the US and Russia have incentives to expand their strategic capabilities."
Currently, both the US and Russia are modernizing their nuclear forces and enhancing strategic capabilities, indicating a new arms buildup competition has already begun.
Dolsikova noted that Russia appears concerned about its ability to penetrate US defense systems, a worry heightened by Donald Trump's plan to build a "Golden Dome" to protect North America from long-range weapons, with Greenland as a strategic point.
At the same time, Russia is developing new weapons to overcome air defense systems, such as the "Poseidon," a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed underwater drone torpedo capable of intercontinental range, and the "Burevestnik," a nuclear-powered cruise missile.
Additionally, the US, Russia, and China are all developing long-range hypersonic missiles capable of changing direction at speeds over 4,000 miles per hour (6,437 kilometers per hour), making them extremely difficult to intercept.
Dolsikova said these expanding military capabilities will make reaching new arms control agreements even more difficult. While still possible, the expiration of New START signals entry into a more volatile and dangerous era.
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Source:bbc