Japanese citizens have gone to the polls to elect members of the House of Representatives after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi decided to dissolve the parliament just months after assuming office. Polls indicate the ruling party is poised to win an outright majority despite facing obstacles such as snowstorms and criticism of economic and foreign policies.
Japan is holding a significant early general election, with millions of people heading to the polls to choose new members of the House of Representatives. This election is considered a "high-stakes gamble" by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office by parliamentary vote in October and quickly dissolved the parliament to seek a direct mandate from the public.
According to the latest opinion polls, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Ms. Takaichi, allied with the "Japan Innovation Party," is expected to win up to 300 out of 465 seats. This would enable the LDP to regain absolute control, which it lost after relinquishing both houses last year.
Although an extreme conservative politician, 64-year-old Takaichi has unexpectedly gained popularity among young voters aged 18 to 30, boasting 2.6 million followers on X, and her election campaign videos have surpassed 100 million views within 10 days. Government approval ratings have steadily risen above 70%.
Additionally, she has become a fashion icon known as "Sanamania," with her black leather bags often selling out and even the pink pen she used during her first press conference going viral. Sociologists say this reflects the Japanese public's desire for "change," weary of traditional politics dominated by elderly male politicians.
On policy, Ms. Takaichi emphasizes tax cuts and subsidies to win voter support. However, analysts warn these measures could worsen Japan's sluggish economy and increase the public debt burden.
In foreign affairs, she is closely watched as a "hawk," having angered Beijing by proposing that Japan's Self-Defense Forces respond if China attacks Taiwan. This has led to the lowest Japan-China relations in over a decade. Conversely, she has openly received support from U.S. President Donald Trump, a rare move from the American leader.
However, some academics caution that personal popularity may not fully translate into votes because Japan's parliamentary system involves party candidates, many of whom have been linked to scandals. The party also faces repercussions from illegal campaign financing cases since 2023.
Another key factor in this election is the "weather." Heavy snow in northern and western regions caused early voting turnout last week to drop about 2.5% compared to the 2024 election. Additionally, the LDP faces a stronger opposition coalition after former government ally Komeito decided to partner with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) to form a new bloc to check the government.
Meanwhile, the government must convince the public that its large budget spending will not worsen debt problems or fiscal fragility. Scholars warn that current policies fail to address low productivity and stagnant wages.
If election results align with polls, Ms. Takaichi will fully emerge as Japan's "Iron Lady," following in the footsteps of her idol Margaret Thatcher, becoming a leader with supreme authority to reform Japan's military and economy in a new era.
,BBC