The death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is not just a significant loss but is increasingly seen as an attempt to erase the 47-year era of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Several analysts assess that the true objective behind the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may not be merely the removal of an individual, but rather a purge of the entire power structure.
Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute in Washington noted that Israel places great importance on Khamenei's assassination, viewing it as an opportunity to end the 47-year era of the Islamic Republic.
Although the Supreme Leader may not have dictated every military tactic recently, the symbolism of the assassination carries deep psychological and political significance.
Parsi believes the hope of the U.S. and Israel is that this shock will cause Iran's regime to collapse from within, either through military pressure or popular uprising.
Earlier, then-U.S. President Donald Trump posted that Khamenei's death was the greatest opportunity for Iranians to reclaim their country.
Parsi suggests the U.S. might anticipate two possible outcomes: one, a popular uprising overthrowing the theocratic regime; or two, a new leader from the existing system who is more conciliatory toward Washington.
However, analysts see the second scenario as unlikely since, despite Iran offering a nuclear deal perceived as more favorable to Trump than to the Obama administration, the U.S. chose confrontation, indicating the real goal is regime submission or change.
Eyal Myrz, a scholar from the University of Sydney, questions the feasibility of regime change via airstrikes without ground troops, suggesting Iran's fate depends on internal power groups, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Risk of regional escalation
Khamenei was not only a state leader but also a Shia religious figure influential in several countries, including Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan.
His death could trigger retaliatory responses in these countries, particularly in areas with armed groups linked to Iran, such as Hezbollah.
Within 24 hours of the event, reports indicated Iran launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in multiple Gulf countries—a red line previously uncrossed—leading analysts to expect further short-term violence escalation.
Who will succeed the leadership?
Previously, U.S. intelligence assessed that the successor might come from the hardline faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
However, publicly known names might not be accurate as the succession process is highly secretive and could involve either a single appointment or a leadership council under Iran's constitution.
Notably, this event occurred while nuclear negotiations were ongoing, with reports that Iran had offered some concessions; analysts warn the new leader may adopt a tougher stance rather than soften toward the U.S.
The crucial question is whether Khamenei's assassination will cause the Iranian regime to collapse or instead strengthen its centralized and hardline security structure.
If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps takes full control, Iran may move toward a more militarized security era, further distancing relations with the West.
What is clear is that this event is not merely the killing of a leader but a shake-up of the Middle East's balance of power that could shape the region's geopolitical direction for decades.
Source:BBC
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