The world is closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy strategic point, amid concerns that rising tensions in the Middle East could lead to another closure of the strait, even though Iran has not officially declared this yet.
After the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 Feb 2024 GMT+7, Tehran communicated via radio to vessels in the area to avoid passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there has been no official announcement that the shipping route has been closed. Meanwhile, Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, told Al Jazeera that his country currently has no intention to close the Strait of Hormuz and no plans to undertake any actions that would obstruct navigation there at this time.
Nonetheless, although the Strait of Hormuz is not fully closed, reports indicate that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired missiles at three oil tankers belonging to the United States and the United Kingdom in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, causing fires aboard these vessels. This has led countries to avoid entering the strait or halt some shipping operations, effectively bringing the situation close to a de facto closure.
Why is the "Strait of Hormuz" important to the world?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow outlet from the Persian Gulf to the open sea. Although the shipping lane is only about 2 miles wide, it is a global energy bottleneck because vessels passing here transport about 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
In addition to oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers—which make up nearly one-third of global fertilizer trade—also transit this route. Therefore, every movement in the area immediately impacts energy markets and global supply chains.
Is it truly closed or just a "de facto closure"?
Physical closure is difficult due to the heavy presence of U.S. naval bases in the region. However, Iran could effectively close the route by laying naval mines in the shipping lanes, which would be a significant escalation.
In practice, an official closure announcement is not necessary. If the risk level rises, shipping companies may cease operations voluntarily. Currently, major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have suspended passage through the strait and ordered their ships to take shelter.
Ship tracking data shows a decline in maritime traffic in the area, with many vessels anchoring or rerouting. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center has warned of risks from miscalculations or misidentification.
Energy and global economic impact
Key destination countries for oil and gas from Hormuz include China, India, Japan, and South Korea. India, in particular, imports about half of its crude oil through this route and has already initiated emergency energy plans.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that bypass Hormuz, their combined spare capacity is only about 2.6 million barrels per day, which is very limited compared to normal volumes.
Analysts predict oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel if tensions persist. While OPEC is attempting to slightly increase production to support the market, options are limited. The impact will directly affect consumers through higher fuel prices, electricity costs, transportation expenses, and broader goods prices.
Risk of severe escalation
Experts warn that sinking oil tankers would cause severe environmental damage and could disrupt shipping for an extended period.
Previously, a closure of Hormuz was seen as unlikely since it would economically pressure Iran itself. However, with U.S. and Israeli goals perceived as regime change, Tehran's leaders may reconsider economic costs in their calculations.
Source:The Independent
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