The annual report from US intelligence agencies clearly states that China has no plans to invade Taiwan in 2027 as previously predicted, focusing instead on controlling the island by means other than war. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pursuing a dual approach, both reducing tensions through personal relations with Xi Jinping and approving massive arms sales to Taiwan.
The US annual global threat assessment report notes that although China continues military drills around Taiwan, Chinese leaders currently have no plans to use military force to seize Taiwan by 2027, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army.
The report states, "China still seeks to achieve reunification without using force if possible," and intelligence agencies assess that China "has no fixed timetable" to reach this goal, despite ongoing progress in developing military capabilities.
President Donald Trump has downplayed the risks in the Taiwan Strait, citing his good relationship with President Xi Jinping and noting that Xi assured him there would be no attack on Taiwan during his term. Nevertheless, the Trump administration recently approved a major $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December, which greatly displeased Beijing.
Japan is concerned that Trump might concede on Taiwan to secure a trade deal with China, with some Japanese officials fearing such a stance would embolden China further.
Additionally, the intelligence report highlights tensions between the US and Japan after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan might respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. Reports indicate Trump personally warned her not to escalate diplomatic conflicts with China. The report views the Japanese leader’s remarks as a "significant policy shift," potentially causing discomfort in Japan ahead of her White House visit on Thursday.
The report concludes that China will continue applying pressure on multiple fronts, expected to intensify throughout 2026, aiming to punish Japan and intimidate other countries from intervening in the Taiwan Strait crisis.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's representative office in Washington, D.C. affirmed that Taiwan will maintain the highest vigilance, as China has never renounced the use of military force, and China’s "gray zone" operations remain a serious threat to regional peace.
, SourceReuters