The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore released its 2026 annual survey, finding that Southeast Asian countries tend to lean slightly toward China rather than the United States if forced to choose a side.
This survey was conducted from 5 January to 20 February 2026 with a sample of 2,008 respondents covering all 11 ASEAN member states, including Timor-Leste, which joined in 2025. The "State of Southeast Asia 2026" report shows that 52% of respondents support China compared to 48% for the United States, reflecting a closely matched and fragile geopolitical landscape between the two powers in the region.
The report notes that although China has regained a slight lead, the narrow gap of 52 to 48 indicates that Southeast Asia remains divided between the two sides rather than clearly favoring one over the other.
In past surveys, there has been fluctuation: China led in 2024, the United States took the lead in 2025, and now China has risen ahead again in 2026.
Breaking it down by country, those showing strong support for China include Indonesia (80.1%), Malaysia (68%), Singapore (66.3%), Timor-Leste (58.2%), Thailand (55%), and Brunei (53.5%).
Meanwhile, countries favoring the United States include the Philippines (76.8%), Myanmar (61.4%), Cambodia (61%), and Vietnam (59.2%). Laos shows an almost even split in support between the two.
The report analyzes that countries with high economic dependence on China tend to lean toward Beijing, whereas those with security ties to the United States, such as the Philippines, clearly side with Washington.
However, even though most respondents still wish to maintain neutrality, economic and security factors may pressure them to choose sides in the future. Additionally, over 55.6% of respondents expect their country’s relations with China to improve over the next three years.
Source:channelnewsasia
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