Scientists warn that El Niño is rapidly forming in the Pacific Ocean and may develop into a historic "Super El Niño," amid concerns that global temperatures could set new records in 2027.
On 22 May 2026 GMT+7, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that meteorologists and scientists worldwide are closely monitoring the formation of a new El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is likely to develop into a "Super El Niño"—the most intense level—following a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures.
NOAA estimates about an 80% chance that El Niño will form by July 2026 GMT+7. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in key equatorial Pacific areas continue to warm, with massive warm water masses accumulating below the surface. Various weather agencies predict Pacific sea temperatures may exceed average levels by up to 2.5 degrees Celsius or more by late this year, an unusually high anomaly. Since the first recorded major El Niño in 1877-1878, only three events have seen sea temperatures surpass 2 degrees Celsius: in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, said this El Niño could be the strongest in decades or possibly set a new record, affirming clear signs that a major event is underway.
However, scientists caution it is still too early to definitively assess the intensity of El Niño, as it depends heavily on the trade winds blowing from east to west along the equator. If these winds weaken, they will intensify El Niño’s strength; if they strengthen again, they could slow or even halt its development.
Michelle L’Herreur, an El Niño expert at NOAA, explained that changes in lower-level winds remain very difficult to predict in advance and are a critical variable affecting the severity of this phenomenon.