Many may recall that at the end of January earlier this year, before the US-Israel and Iran conflict erupted, which later expanded into a crisis in the Persian Gulf...
Gold prices in the global market became highly volatile, rising sharply and breaking previous records nearly every day. By late January 2026, domestic gold prices surged to an all-time high, with gold bars trading between 81,400 and 81,950 baht per baht-weight, while gold ornaments sold for 82,200 baht per baht-weight. On the same day, gold prices jumped as much as 3,700 baht per baht-weight.
Spot gold prices surged to an all-time high above $5,520 per ounce before retreating to close around $5,303 per ounce in the following session.
At that time, many believed gold prices would continue to break records, reaching $6,000 or even higher. Similarly, in Thailand, many queued up at Yaowarat to buy gold, not just to sell it.
However, after only five months, the intermittent conflict triggered an energy crisis. The difficulty of transporting oil and goods through the Strait of Hormuz not only caused soaring oil and energy prices but also led to supply chain shortages in production — from sourcing raw materials, processing, storage, to distribution and delivery to end consumers.
This problem raised transportation costs and product prices, making it impossible for many countries to avoid a rapidly rising inflation crisis. Consequently, gold prices fell continuously. Recently, spot gold prices hovered around $4,100 per ounce, while domestic gold prices dropped nearly 20,000 baht per baht-weight, settling at about 63,000 baht per baht-weight.
Furthermore, gold prices are likely to experience even lower volatility, as both the global and domestic economies suffer heavy impacts from the energy crisis and soaring living costs.
Chitti Tangsitpakdee, President of the Gold Traders Association, warned retail investors not to rush into buying gold at this time. Although gold prices may fall further, lower prices do not guarantee safe purchases.
Retail investors should distinguish between investing in physical gold and speculating in futures markets, as they are different markets with significantly different risk levels.
Chitti believes the current severe gold price volatility is not solely due to actual gold trading but is heavily influenced by the futures market, which has trading volumes many times higher than the physical gold volume.
"Funds can sell futures contracts without holding physical gold, which can cause price pressure more rapidly and severely than in the physical gold market." Chitti expressed these views to Nawarat Charoenprapin on the program Money Chat.
He also noted that the global annual physical gold trade volume is about 4,000 to 4,500 tons, while futures trading can circulate several thousand tons within just one day, enabling major players to significantly sway market prices.
Therefore, retail investors focusing on short-term speculation face high risks competing against large players who have more capital, information, and influence over market direction.
For investors aiming to accumulate gold, Chitti personally still views gold as a valuable long-term asset.
However, at this time, he advises delaying further investment decisions to await clarity from key factors, especially the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, developments in the Middle East, and global geopolitical issues.
"A sharp price drop does not mean risks have disappeared. Investors should wait for clearer market direction because this is a very unpredictable period."
Although there remains confidence in gold’s long-term trend, in a market driven by interest rate expectations and futures trading, retail investors should prioritize risk management over rushing to buy just because prices have fallen.
Those who already hold gold or are at a loss may need patience, while new buyers should wait for clearer signals, as the gold market remains highly volatile and difficult to predict," Chitti emphasized.
US inflation figures released on 10 June showed an increase from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, the highest in over three years, mainly driven by rising energy prices due to the war. This led to speculation that the Fed might need to raise interest rates, contrary to earlier signals of rate cuts.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for midweek (16-18 June) comes amid accelerating inflation—the highest in three years, rising from 3.8% last May to 4.2% this year. This has fueled expectations that the FOMC may decide to raise policy rates currently at 3.50-3.75% per annum, reversing previous intentions to cut rates if the Gulf war ended.
Although no rate hike is expected this round, the dot plot forecasts show a clear shift toward a hawkish stance, with about half the members anticipating rate increases by the end of this year. The median projected rate for end-2026 has risen to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, reversing the earlier trend. "Cutting" . . . to "hiking"
The expectation of Fed rate hikes tends to push gold prices down as investors move funds into higher-yielding money markets, causingspeculationthat spot gold prices could fall to around $3,800per ounce,especially if the global economy slips into a widespread recession causing rising unemploymentamong peopleduring times of high living costs.
Real experts have advised it might be necessary to hold onto cash carefully and avoid distractions by investing now, as it is safer.