China's GDP grew 4.3% in the second quarter, the slowest in over three years, despite record-high exports in the first half and June retail sales turning positive for the first time in over three years, driven by AI and electric vehicles.
On 16 July 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy expanded 4.3% in Q2 (April-June) year-on-year, below economists' forecast of 4.5%, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2022. This figure is also below the government's full-year growth target of 4.5-5.0%, reflecting ongoing pressure from a weak real estate sector and sluggish domestic spending.
Meanwhile, China's economy continued to benefit from strong exports. The General Administration of Customs reported that exports in January-June surpassed 10 trillion yuan (about 1.58 trillion USD or roughly 51.5 trillion baht) for the first time in history, driven by rising global demand for technology goods related to artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EV), and electronics. In June alone, exports rose 27% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations. Semiconductor exports more than doubled in value, while data processing equipment exports increased by 53.1%.
Domestic consumption showed signs of recovery, with June retail sales growing 1.0% year-on-year—the first increase since December 2022—after a 0.6% decline in May. Industrial output rose 5.3%, surpassing market expectations of 4.6%. However, fixed-asset investment in the first half still contracted by 5.7%, indicating that domestic investment has not fully rebounded.
The National Bureau of Statistics noted that although overall economic growth continues, external uncertainties remain, including conflicts in the Middle East, trade barriers, and an imbalance between strong production capacity and weak domestic demand. These factors may compel the government to implement additional consumption stimulus measures in the second half of the year. Some analysts believe China could still meet its full-year growth target if exports remain robust.
Source: AFP