Australia has released a 40-year population forecast report warning of an aging society and declining birth rates, with deaths possibly exceeding births for the first time in the 2060s, while population growth slows.
The Australian Treasury released the Intergenerational Report assessing population and economic trends over the next 40 years, warning that Australia faces significant demographic changes due to falling birth rates, an aging population, and slowing immigration.
The report forecasts that deaths in Australia will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s, ending natural population increase—the difference between births and deaths—as a driver of population growth.
Historically, Australia relied heavily on immigration to boost population and offset declining birth rates, but as immigration slows, the country faces a trend seen in many developed nations like Japan, Germany, and South Korea, where deaths have already surpassed births.
The report states Australia's population growth is expected to slow to an average of 0.9% annually over the next 40 years, down from 1.4% average growth in the past 40 years, with fertility rates declining and net overseas migration decreasing before stabilizing.
The Australian Treasury notes the population will age faster and grow more slowly than previously projected, with major economic influences over the next four decades including AI development, geopolitical polarization, energy transition, and a shift toward a service-based economy.
An aging society also means increased demand for health and eldercare services, especially in areas with large elderly populations, potentially causing labor shortages in healthcare and aged care sectors that currently rely heavily on foreign workers.
Meanwhile, the Australian government recently tightened immigration rules amid political pressure from the One Nation party, which advocates significantly reducing immigration levels.
The report also mentions the possibility of future tax cuts, while the government continues measures to ease living costs for citizens facing high inflation, mortgage interest rates, and housing prices.
. Source:channelnewsasia
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