Analysis indicates an "exceptionally strong El Niño" could cause over 451,000 heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027, with Nigeria facing the highest risk.
On 24 September 2026, the Climate Impact Lab research team, part of the University of Chicago in Illinois, USA, released a new analytical report stating that the intensifying unusually strong El Niño phenomenon could raise global land temperatures by about 1.2 degrees Celsius over the coming months. The number of extremely hot days is projected to increase by 44% compared to normal years, leading to more than 451,000 heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. This figure is based on model estimates.
The report states that El Niño, a natural climate variability pattern often causing global temperature rises, has reached an especially severe level and may break previous intensity records. Meanwhile, global warming driven by fossil fuel use further heightens the risk of extreme high temperatures.
The report found that Southern Hemisphere and developing countries are expected to suffer the most severe impacts. Nigeria tops the model's estimated heat-related death toll at about 31,400, followed by Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The United States ranks among the 20 most affected countries, with an estimated 3,500 heat-related deaths.
The report is still undergoing peer review, but Climate Impact Lab chose to release preliminary findings early due to the rapid intensification of El Niño, allowing governments and agencies time to prepare measures to reduce losses. Recommended actions include early heat warning systems, public health response plans, establishing cooling centers and drinking water stations, and expanding healthcare access to help mitigate risks from extreme heat.
Source: BBC