Denmark's intelligence agency has issued a warning that Russia might launch limited attacks against NATO member countries within the next few months, alongside hybrid attacks aimed at targeting supporters of Ukraine.
Foreign news agencies reported on 24 Sep 2026 that Denmark's intelligence agency indicated Russia might initiate limited military attacks against NATO member countries within the coming months, marking the most direct warning from a Western security agency to date.
Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) announced on Thursday that there is a low but increasing risk that Russia could deploy small, unmarked military units into neighboring countries or use long-range weapons to attack infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
"Such actions could include deploying troops into limited areas within NATO member countries bordering Russia, potentially citing the protection of Russian minority groups in those areas," DDIS chief Thomas Arenkil said at a press conference. "The goal would be to create divisions within the alliance."
Denmark's statement is the clearest warning yet regarding Russia's plans, following accusations of hybrid attacks in several European countries, including a drone strike on Leipzig airport in Germany and a Russian ship firing flares at a Danish helicopter in the Baltic Sea.
Denmark's intelligence service stated that Russia is under more pressure than at any time since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2025, adding that it is "unlikely" Russia will achieve any significant advances in Ukraine within the next six months.
Denmark also warned that Russia will escalate hybrid attacks on European countries, resulting in "more severe" impacts on targeted nations, including "cyberattacks causing societal disruption and high-risk sabotage that could lead to fatalities."
Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus said, "Russia is under pressure and unable to achieve its war objectives. That is why they are targeting those who support Ukraine. This shows just how much pressure they are under."
Denmark's intelligence agency further stated that it believes there is a very low chance Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of NATO countries, as it would take up to six months to build up sufficient forces, though the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.
Western intelligence agencies have long warned that Russia might shift its focus to NATO member countries within three to five years, especially if the war in Ukraine ends, but concerns have increased following a rise in brazen infrastructure attacks across Europe.
However, hybrid attacks—which combine conventional weapons with cyber, information, economic, and political tactics without declaring open war—do not yet meet the threshold for military attacks under NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause.
Denmark's intelligence agency stated on Thursday that it still believes Russia would need six months to start a localized war with neighboring NATO countries, two years to begin a regional war, and five years to launch a large-scale war in Europe.
However, the agency added that it currently sees Russia capable of escalating confrontations with the West through intensified hybrid attacks or limited military operations within the next few months, "even while the war in Ukraine continues."
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Source:ft