Research from Imperial College London estimates that the European heatwave from June to August 2026 caused over 50,000 deaths, with about 65% linked to global warming driven by human activities.
The severe heatwave that spread across Europe in summer 2026 resulted in approximately 50,391 heat-related deaths. Of these, 32,619, or roughly 65%, are attributed to global warming caused by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, according to a study by a research team preparing to publish in the journal Nature Health.
The researchers analyzed data from 854 cities across Europe during June, July, and August, using statistical models to estimate heat-related deaths by age group and compared these with simulated scenarios assuming no human-induced global warming.
The study found that the death toll in summer 2026 was 71% higher than the previous record in 2022, which had about 29,480 deaths. However, researchers noted that this figure may underestimate the reality, as it excludes severe heatwaves in May and only covers 854 cities representing about 40% of Europe's total population.
Garyfallos Constantinoudis, professor at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, stated that nearly one-third of all deaths occurred between 17 June and 1 July, during an intense heatwave with average temperatures about 5.3 degrees Celsius above historical averages.
The elderly were the most affected group, with those aged 85 and over accounting for about half of all deaths. Younger adults aged 20-44 were also impacted, with over 800 heat-related deaths reported in this age range.
Italy, France, Spain, and Germany had the highest numbers of heat-related deaths in this study. A prior study by the same team reported that Rome was the European capital with the highest cumulative heat-related deaths from 2000 to 2025.
Claire Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said Europe is the fastest-warming continent, with summer temperatures averaging 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than they would be in a world without human-induced global warming. She warned that infrastructure in many parts of Western and Northern Europe is not yet designed to withstand such extreme temperatures.
Researchers also noted that heat-related deaths are often not recorded as direct causes on death certificates, necessitating statistical models to assess the true mortality burden. The proportion of heat-related deaths linked to human-induced global warming has risen from about 45% in the early 2000s to around 65% today.
.source: AP
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