Thai rice exports for the first 11 months reached 7.29 million tons, with the full year expected to surpass the target at 7.88 million tons and possibly reach 8 million tons. However, the 2026 target is set at only 7 million tons due to intense competition, India offloading stock, importers slowing purchases, and the strong baht making Thai rice more expensive and less competitive. Meanwhile, cassava exports have already exceeded the target at 7.83 million tons and are expected to continue strong in 2026.
Ms. Arada Fuengthong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce, revealed that Thai rice exports over the first 11 months of 2025 (January–November) totaled 7.29 million tons, down 21%, valued at 4.162 billion USD, a 30% decline or approximately 136.8 billion baht. The full-year export volume is expected to reach around 7.88 million tons, exceeding the target of 7.5 million tons, and could reach up to 8 million tons if shipments are delivered promptly. For 2026, after discussions with the private sector, exports are estimated to be about 7 million tons due to significant ongoing challenges.
In 2026, the global rice market is expected to remain highly competitive due to increased rice production, India offloading large stockpiles, and reduced import demand from key partners like Indonesia. Geopolitical conflicts are raising shipping costs, and the appreciation of the baht has reduced the competitiveness of Thai rice prices. These challenges have affected the market since early 2025 and are expected to continue into 2026 unless relevant agencies manage to keep the baht at a suitable level.
The department plans to promote Thai rice exports through government-to-government (G2G) rice sales with China, which agreed on 500,000 tons. Currently, 100,000 tons have been agreed upon and are under price negotiation. It is expected that after the new year, the deal will be finalized and shipments can start by March 2026, with the remainder delivered within 2026 following further detailed negotiations. Discussions with Singapore on 100,000 tons are underway, with talks planned to begin in January 2026.
Simultaneously, efforts will be made to expand markets for white and parboiled rice in high-potential regions such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, and Africa, and to grow markets for premium rice in countries like Germany, Switzerland, and the United States. The department will strengthen relationships and build confidence with key partners such as Hong Kong, China, the U.S., and Canada. Thai rice will be promoted through international trade fairs, linking importers with exporters, online promotion, and campaigns encouraging consumption via restaurants and well-known key influencers.
Ms. Arada added that cassava exports over the first 11 months reached 7.83 million tons, up 28.36%, exceeding the target of 7.5 million tons. This success results from proactive efforts to expand into new potential countries and regions while maintaining traditional markets. Activities included trade delegations selling cassava in China, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates, and hosting the World Cassava Conference 2025. For 2026, exports are expected to surpass 2025 levels, with plans to continue market expansion activities targeting southern China, Japan, North America, and Europe to promote cassava for use in animal feed, food, chemicals, adhesives, and paper industries.
/ State Policy Additional