The Ministry of Commerce revealed that inflation in December 2025 dropped by 0.28%, marking the lowest level in ASEAN due to falling energy prices and living costs following global market trends and government measures. The inflation rate for the entire year of 2025 decreased by 0.14%, with expectations of continued decline in the first quarter of 2026.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, stated that Thailand's general consumer price index for December 2025 stood at 100.19 compared to 100.47 in December 2024, resulting in a general inflation rate decrease of 0.28% year-on-year (YoY). This represents a slower rate of decline than November 2025, which saw a 0.49% decrease. Key factors include reductions in energy-related goods prices, such as electricity and fuel, influenced by global energy market conditions and the decision by the Fuel Oil Fund Management Committee to lower the fuel fund levy on diesel. Additionally, prices of personal care products continued to decrease due to promotional efforts by producers and businesses. However, prices in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category rose due to increases in fresh vegetable prices, non-alcoholic beverages, and ready-to-eat foods. Other goods and services had minimal impact on inflation.
Comparing Thailand's general inflation rate internationally, the latest data from November 2025 shows a 0.49% YoY decrease, placing Thailand seventh lowest among 132 economic zones reporting figures and the lowest among nine ASEAN countries reporting (Brunei, Timor-Leste, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos). In December, the inflation rate fell by 0.28% YoY. Price movements included a 1.43% YoY decline in non-food and non-beverage categories, driven by decreases in key items such as energy-related goods (electricity, gasohol, diesel, gasoline), personal care products (shampoo, skin protection and care products, facial foam, soap), automobiles, water rates, cleaning products (laundry detergent, fabric softener, ironing liquid, floor cleaner), and clothing (men's, women's, and children's T-shirts, shirts, and trousers). Meanwhile, some key items increased in price, including housing rent, domestic and international travel expenses, skytrain fares, men's and women's hairdressing, waste disposal fees, and pet food.
The food and non-alcoholic beverages category rose by 1.53% YoY due to price increases in key items such as fresh vegetables (fresh chili, morning glory, Chinese cabbage, cabbage, long beans, holy basil), ready-to-eat meals (pre-cooked dishes, rice with curry, noodles, rice with stir-fried basil), non-alcoholic beverages (instant coffee, hot/cold coffee, chocolate-flavored drinks), fish and seafood (mackerel, Nile tilapia, snakehead fish, squid, steamed tuna), and sugar products (sweets, ice cream). However, many items saw price reductions, including fresh fruits (tangerines, mangoes, banana varieties, grapes, watermelon, bananas), glutinous and regular rice, chicken eggs, vegetable oil, and oyster sauce.
Core inflation (general inflation excluding fresh food and energy) rose by 0.59% YoY, slowing from 0.66% YoY in November 2025. The general consumer price index increased by 0.04% month-on-month (MoM) in December 2025, driven by a 0.46% MoM rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices. Key contributors were fresh vegetables (chili, long beans, cabbage, climbing wattle, holy basil), affected by reduced supply due to flood damage in some production areas, grilled chicken, and food delivery services, influenced by the end of promotional activities by businesses. Pork and eggs prices rose due to increased demand in the tourism season and year-end festivals, with farmgate prices increasing and reflected in retail prices. Conversely, some items saw price declines, including fresh fruits (tangerines, watermelon, banana varieties, pineapple), vegetable oil, curry paste, glutinous rice, oyster sauce, and tomato sauce. The non-food and beverage category decreased by 0.23% MoM, due to reductions in key prices such as electricity and water rates, helped by government subsidies in Songkhla province, which was affected by flooding. Fuel prices (diesel, gasohol, gasoline) declined due to lower global crude oil prices and reduced fuel fund levies on diesel. Personal care products (skin protection and care products, facial foam, shampoo, soap, face powder) and cleaning products (fabric softener, laundry detergent, dishwashing liquid, bathroom cleaner) fell due to year-end promotional campaigns. Toll fees decreased as government waived charges during public holidays and New Year festivals. However, some prices rose, including skytrain fares, housing rent, pet food, and men's hairdressing.
The average general consumer price index for 2025 compared to 2024 decreased by 0.14% annually (AoA), largely due to declines in energy prices, including fuel and electricity, following global energy market trends and government measures to reduce living costs. At the same time, fresh vegetable and fruit prices fell due to increased supply in markets, along with reductions in personal care product prices due to promotional activities. Nevertheless, some key items saw price increases, such as ready-to-eat foods, fish and seafood, and cooking ingredients. For the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, inflation fell by 0.52% YoY and declined by 0.02% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
The outlook for Thailand's general inflation rate in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to continue declining, ranging between -0.5% and 0.0%, with a midpoint of -0.25%. This is mainly due to a low base effect from last year's oil prices and continued weak economic demand, as no economic stimulus measures are anticipated during the election period. However, some items, especially fresh vegetables, may see price increases due to crop damage caused by natural disasters. It is expected that the situation will improve later with government economic stimulus measures after the election, recovery in the tourism sector, and accelerated public budget disbursements.
For the entire year of 2026, general inflation is forecasted to be between 0.0% and 1.0%, with a midpoint of 0.5%, rising from the 0.14% decline in 2025. This increase is supported by upward trends in agricultural product prices under policies to stabilize agricultural prices, as well as the recovery of the tourism sector, which will lead to higher prices for related goods and services. Nevertheless, several challenges remain, including global crude oil prices staying below last year's levels, the Thai baht's continuous and faster appreciation compared to other regional currencies, low growth rates in the Thai and global economies, ongoing geopolitical conflicts with multiple dimensions, and risks from natural disasters caused by climate change, which could cause widespread income losses and significantly affect inflation.
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