The Trade Policy Office is closely monitoring the US-Venezuela conflict, noting that the short-term impact on Thailand’s trade and inflation is limited due to the small trade volume and stable global oil prices. However, it warns of long-term risks related to geopolitics and a new world order. It recommends that both government and private sectors accelerate proactive trade negotiations and attract investment relocating to Thailand.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that on 3 Jan 2026, US President Donald Trump ordered a military operation to arrest the Venezuelan leader. He said this event is strategically significant for controlling energy sources and cutting off the influence of rival superpowers in Latin America. Although the initial economic impact on the global market was not severe, with crude oil prices slightly decreasing despite Venezuela having the world’s largest oil reserves,
Venezuela produces less than 1% of global oil output, and the world market currently has excess supply. Moreover, if the US increases production from Venezuela, the market will be even more saturated. However, in global financial markets, risks and volatility have increased, with investors shifting funds to safe assets like the US dollar and gold. Looking ahead, this event signals a new world order that will significantly affect global trade geopolitics.
Regarding the economic impact on Thailand, TPSO estimates the short-term effects to be quite limited in trade and finance. Direct trade impact with Venezuela is minimal, as the trade value in 2025 was only 55.9 million USD, accounting for 0.01% of total trade. Imports are unaffected because Thailand does not import oil from Venezuela. Financially, the baht may fluctuate and weaken initially following the strengthening of the US dollar as a safe asset. Nevertheless, long-term risks remain, especially in energy and inflation. If the US successfully controls Venezuelan oil production and increases output, global oil supply will rise, lowering prices in the medium to long term. Although lower oil prices reduce living costs and overall inflation, this will negatively affect prices of Thai agricultural products like rubber and biofuel crops, which typically track oil prices, putting pressure on farmers’ incomes and grassroots purchasing power.
Additionally, regarding the baht, if oil prices fall, Thailand’s import value will decrease, reducing demand for US dollars. This could strengthen the baht in the long term, impacting exporters' competitiveness. Furthermore, on global trade geopolitics, US policies on reorganizing the world order and intervening in other countries may lead to intensified trade wars, technological barriers, and supply chain bifurcation. These factors will affect the overall global trade environment and slow Thailand’s exports.
Mr. Nantapong added that amidst this crisis and emerging new world order, there is a significant opportunity for Thailand as a geopolitically neutral country. Rising tensions between the US and opposing powers like China will accelerate the relocation of production bases from China to ASEAN to reduce trade war risks. This gives Thailand a chance to attract investment and export substitution goods to the US.
Mr. Nantapong concluded on Thailand’s response and opportunities, stating that government and private sectors must cooperate to turn this crisis into an opportunity.
Thailand should maintain a neutral stance to balance relations between the US group and Venezuela’s former allies (China, Russia), while accelerating proactive trade negotiations to attract industries relocating or seeking to reduce trade war risks to set up production bases in Thailand. The private sector must focus on agility, managing exchange rate risks, and diversifying export markets to reduce overdependence on conflicting countries, preparing firmly for the new world order.
/ State Policy /