The Thai National Shippers' Council (NSC) assesses that the US Supreme Court's delay in ruling on the Trump tax case may still result in other forms of taxation, even if the decision benefits the global community. They emphasize that Thai exporters should not be overly concerned.
Mr. Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, Chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (NSC). He revealed that regarding the US Supreme Court's postponement of the Trump tax case ruling, the exporters' council believes the Court is likely to follow the lower courts' decisions but cannot announce it immediately. This is because the US administration and Trump's team may not yet be ready to handle the situation. It is known that import taxes have already been collected into the treasury system. Once collected, the likelihood of using those funds is high, so some money may be spent.
Furthermore, since there is no resolution yet, it is understood that the decision will be postponed slightly to allow the administration and Supreme Court to provide opinions or additional information explaining why this is necessary and why it applies to different countries. Even though it must pass Congress, the US President holds powers under Sections 230 and 232, allowing selective taxation on certain products. Therefore, there is confidence the ruling will be favorable if decided accordingly. However, because it significantly affects the US side and the administration has already issued an Executive Order, efforts continue to uphold that order as correct and beneficial to the US. So, regardless of the ruling, taxation will persist but possibly in different forms.
For business operators and exporters, this situation primarily concerns importers. It is assessed that the taxes already collected will likely not be refunded to importers. Meanwhile, the effects have already occurred. Exporters see these issues as anticipated, expecting import taxes. Therefore, whatever the ruling outcome, it will not have a major impact because negotiations, pricing, and trade terms have already been settled. The impact is thus not severe, as all parties were aware taxes would be imposed.
Even if the ruling decides there will be no tax in the original form, other forms of taxation may still apply. Hence, the current situation is relatively calm. If the outcome benefits exporters or importers more, that is positive. Overall, the situation is expected to remain similar, and the US is unlikely to refund collected funds but will manage internally how to proceed.
Regarding the use of other sections, Mr. Thanakorn explained this could mean higher taxes but applied only to specific groups or products. Currently, the US government and negotiating team already have lists of traded products by country and have considered which items to regulate. Therefore, significant changes are unlikely, as the US understands the context of its entire import system.
When asked about the likelihood of a ruling favorable to Thailand, Mr. Thanakorn said that from NSC's perspective, there is a chance it will be beneficial. However, since the US Executive Order remains fully in effect, the method of application depends on the administration. If funds have been collected and they intend to continue collecting, they must find ways to do so consistent with their budget projections. The Executive Order is expected to persist if the original approach is ruled incorrect.
Regarding rumors that the US Supreme Court's decision will come around June, this is considered sufficient time for the US administration to prepare to uphold previous decisions and collected funds. Therefore, Thai business operators are advised not to worry excessively, as this matter is already known and should be approached with calm. It concerns internal US management on whether funds will be refunded or not, which they must handle themselves.