The Thai Chamber of Commerce Council and University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce forecast that in 2026, Thailand's border and transit trade will surpass 2 trillion baht, up from the 1.95 trillion baht estimate for 2025. Border trade is declining, but transit trade is compensating. The confidence index for border and transit trade shows short-term business pessimism, especially regarding Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos, but long-term outlooks are gradually improving. They are preparing a strategy for border and transit trade along with relief measures for affected parties to propose to the new government.
Vachira Khunthaveethep, Director of the Trade Strategy Institute at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, revealed results from a confidence survey on Thailand's border and transit trade. The survey covered 477 border and transit traders, members of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and trade associations across agricultural, agro-industrial, and industrial sectors nationwide. For 2026, the combined trade value is expected to be 2.02 trillion baht, with border trade at 886.7 billion baht and transit trade at 1.14 trillion baht. In 2025, the estimate was 1.95 trillion baht total, with border trade at 899.5 billion baht and transit trade at 1.05 trillion baht.
The survey index showed a short-term index for January 2026 at 38.7, down from 49.5 in January 2025. The mid-term six-month index was 43.1, down from 52.8, and the long-term index for the entire year 2026 was 47.5, down from 63.6. When broken down by country, border trade with Cambodia had the lowest index in short, mid, and long term due to border conflicts, assuming border checkpoints remain closed all year. Myanmar followed, affected by some checkpoint closures, internal unrest, and economic slowdown. Laos also showed low confidence due to domestic economic issues. Malaysia had the highest confidence among border trade partners. For transit trade with third countries, the highest confidence index was for southern China, followed by Vietnam and Singapore.
Factors undermining confidence include halted Thailand-Cambodia trade due to conflicts; Thai-Myanmar border trade controls; scams and illicit trade leading the government to tighten oversight, causing less fluid trade; border risks from Myanmar's intense fighting reducing confidence; a persistently strong baht affecting Thai product competitiveness; smuggling and false claims of Thai origin harming product credibility; and sharply rising transportation costs.
"The private sector seeks government support to reduce trade obstacles and barriers, expedite free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, strengthen neighborly relations, separate trade issues from politics, improve regulations and government procedures to facilitate trade, develop payment systems, simplify customs procedures, maintain peace along border areas, and combat corruption," the statement said.
Thanawat Polvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, stated that the indices, still below the normal level of 100 and the moderate level of 50, indicate that Thailand's border trade direction this year is likely to contract. This is due to impacts from trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, uncertain U.S. trade tariffs, Cambodia's border checkpoint closures—worth about 15 billion baht monthly in trade with Thailand—and some Myanmar checkpoint closures. However, transit trade will help raise the overall value. Border and transit trade together account for about 10% of Thailand's total exports, helping support the economy.
Woratat Tantimongkolsuk, Secretary of the Border Trade Committee of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Council and Chairman of the Thai-Cambodian Business Council, said the Chamber will discuss the index results again with traders to reach conclusions and develop a border and transit trade strategy. This will include relief and problem-solving measures for affected parties to present to the new government, aiming to maintain Thailand's competitive edge and stability in border and transit trade.
"Regarding the Cambodia impact, it is estimated that trade values have declined by 500 million baht per day or over 15 billion baht per month. Thai businesses investing in Cambodia are estimated to have direct investment via company shares worth about 150 billion baht, excluding other forms of investment. Currently, Thai investors are considering their next steps—whether to continue, stop, or relocate their bases," he added.
. . . (no content to translate) . . . Government policy Additional information