The Trade Policy Office (TPO) revealed that Thailand's exports and imports in January 2026 hit record values of over $31 billion and $34 billion USD respectively, resulting in a trade deficit with China but a consistent surplus with the U.S. The initial 15% U.S. tariff has lowered product prices, potentially increasing Thai imports. However, Thailand gains no competitive advantage as all competitors face the same tariff rate. The TPO emphasized continuing negotiations to address new U.S. tariffs and measures, aiming to counter the trade deficit. Sunanta has instructed commercial attachés to pursue market expansion.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (TPO). He disclosed that in January 2026, Thailand's exports were valued at $31.5731 billion USD, or 980.744 billion baht, up 24.4% compared to January 2025, marking the 19th consecutive month of growth and a new record surpassing the previous peak in May 2025 of $31.0449 billion USD. Imports reached $34.8765 billion USD, or 1.097 trillion baht, up 29.4%, also a record high, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.3034 billion USD, or 116.7 billion baht.
However, Thailand continues to run a trade deficit with China while maintaining a surplus with the U.S. The deficit with China was $7.2238 billion USD, up from $5.6874 billion USD in January 2025. Conversely, the surplus with the U.S. was $473.8 million USD, down from $3.0783 billion USD in January 2025.
The export growth was largely driven by an upturn in electronics, spurred by transitions to AI technology and data centers, boosting electrical appliances, automotive, and parts sectors. Agricultural and processed food products such as durian, mangosteen, jasmine rice, and frozen shrimp also showed strong growth. The rise in imports mainly involved raw materials and semi-finished goods for export production, as well as capital goods and machinery, benefiting from the stronger baht.
Export markets expanded significantly across nearly all key regions: the U.S. increased by 43.1%, China by 35.1%, Japan by 2.7%, the European Union (27 countries) by 17.8%, and ASEAN (5 countries) by 29.8%. However, exports contracted in the CLMV markets by 8.7%, while South Asia rose 11.1%, Australia by 97.8%, the Middle East by 13.7%, and Latin America by 13.9%.
Mr. Nantapong commented on President Donald Trump's announcement to raise import tariffs on goods from global trading partners, including Thailand, by 10% and 15% under Section 122 of U.S. trade law. This replaces previous retaliatory tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated, requiring their removal. The initial 15% tariff, replacing Thailand's prior 19% retaliatory tariff, lowers costs for U.S. importers, reducing final product prices and enabling price-sensitive U.S. consumers to purchase more, particularly increasing imports of Thai food products such as chicken, seafood, and canned fruits. Conversely, competitors previously subject to higher retaliatory tariffs of 30% or 40% now face the uniform 15% rate, intensifying competition. Additionally, Thailand's strong baht hampers the competitiveness of its exports.
"Although import tariffs have decreased, the Ministry of Commerce will continue negotiations with the U.S. to monitor potential new measures, as the U.S. still runs a trade deficit with Thailand and may impose tariffs on certain products. Thailand must remain engaged in negotiations. Issues like tariff reductions and market access for U.S. goods will be further evaluated, as well as monitoring whether the U.S. will implement additional trade retaliatory tariffs," he added.
Ms. Sunanta Kangwalakul, Director-General of the Department of International Trade Promotion, said the department is closely monitoring exports. Despite the record-high export values, there is caution as it is unclear when the current upswing cycle will end. The department plans to continue market penetration efforts, since the reduced U.S. tariff applies equally to all countries, so market expansion must continue. She has instructed commercial attachés to seek new opportunities in all markets for goods and services to capture market share. In the important U.S. market, additional measures will be implemented, including recently inviting major U.S. importers to Thailand for business negotiations with Thai exporters to maintain market share.
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