An academic estimates that Thailand could lose 10-60 billion baht in export value to Iran and the Middle East due to the attacks on Iran. Global oil prices are expected to jump 20-100%, impacting transportation and production costs. Additionally, sea freight and marine insurance fees are likely to soar 50-140%. Exporters are advised to analyze trends in oil prices and shipping costs, while the government should closely monitor the exchange rate.
Mr. Atth Phisanwanich, an independent academic and expert in international and ASEAN economics, revealed that if the US and Israel's attacks on Iran escalate into a war lasting 1-3 months, Thailand could lose 10-60 billion baht in export revenue to the Middle East. This represents 0.1-0.6% of Thailand’s total global exports or 2.5-15% of exports to the Middle East. In 2025, Thailand exported 4 billion baht worth of goods to Iran and 400 billion baht to 16 Middle Eastern countries.
Moreover, Thailand will be affected by rising global oil prices. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could increase 20-100%, reaching around 70-75 US dollars per barrel, up from the WTI crude price of 67 dollars per barrel on 28 Feb 2026. Since about 20% of the world’s daily oil production of 100 million barrels passes through the Strait, transportation and production costs for goods will rise.
At the same time, Thailand will face higher international shipping and insurance costs, expected to increase 50-140%. This is because shipments from Asia and ASEAN to Europe passing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal may have to take longer alternative routes, increasing distance and transit time. Sea freight and insurance fees may rise to 3,075-12,000 US dollars per 40-foot container, up from the current 2,050-5,000 dollars.
Recommendations include: 1. Exporters should promptly assess risks in shipping routes to Europe, considering routes, freight, and insurance costs, comparing expenses across options. 2. Exporters must analyze the impact of volatile global oil prices to accurately manage overall company costs. 3. The Thai government needs to closely monitor and manage the baht exchange rate amid war conditions, as the US dollar fluctuates due to capital moving to safe assets and energy market uncertainties. Dollar strength or weakness directly affects the baht and Thai exports. Maintaining an appropriate baht value will help lessen the war’s impact on exports in 2026.
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