Thai rice exports in the first four months of 2026 have stumbled, with the Middle East conflict causing a loss of 200,000 tons in the Iraqi market and a 20% surge in shipping costs. Fortunately, Asian markets remain robust. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce is pressing ahead with negotiations for the second batch of Thailand-China G2G rice sales.
Mr. Chukiat Opaswong, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, revealed the situation of Thai rice exports during the first four months (January-April) of 2026, stating that overall exports remain strong in nearly all markets except the Middle East, which has been stagnant for three months. The main cause is the ongoing conflict, resulting in cumulative rice exports of 2.2 million tons in four months, below the target. If the situation prolongs, exports are expected to reach only 6.6 million tons for the year, down from the original target of 7 million tons.
Mr. Chukiat explained that a key factor for the shortfall is losing the Iraqi market, normally Thailand's largest rice export destination, importing around 80,000–90,000 tons monthly, or about 1 million tons annually. However, due to the Middle East conflict, exports to Iraq have completely halted. Even with cargo ships available, they cannot sail, causing Thailand to lose over 200,000 tons in exports to this market over the past three months.
Additionally, exporters face pressure from rising logistics costs, including freight and insurance fees, which have increased by approximately 20% following the global rise in oil prices.
Despite these pressures, exports to Asian regions continue to sustain the overall situation, especially Malaysia and the Philippines, which have shown clear increases in rice import demand. Malaysia has extended its rice reserve stockpile period from 3 months to 9 months, prompting urgent large-scale rice purchases.
Regarding Ms. Arada Fuengthong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, provided an update on the progress of Thailand-China government-to-government (G2G) rice sales. After delivering the first batch of 40,000 tons to China in early 2026, negotiations are underway for the second batch, with China previously expressing interest in importing 50,000–60,000 tons.
Since the government is in a transition period, the process must await approval from the new Cabinet and the National Rice Policy and Management Committee. She affirmed that negotiations will continue actively, targeting a total sale of 500,000 tons.
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