Thailand's inflation rate in April 2026 surged to 2.89%, the highest in 38 months. The Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS) identified the main cause as expensive oil prices following global markets and the Middle East crisis, which increased transportation and ready-made food costs by 5-10 baht in nearly every province nationwide.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS). He revealed that the general consumer price index in April 2026 stood at 103.03 compared to 100.14 in April 2025, resulting in a 2.89% inflation rate, the highest in 38 months. This was due to higher domestic fuel prices, influenced by global oil prices affected by the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn raised public transportation fares, including airplanes, school buses, vans, skytrains, and air-conditioned buses.
Simultaneously, the price of ready-made food increased, reflecting higher production and transportation costs, along with rising fresh vegetable prices due to extreme heat. Other goods and services had limited impact on inflation. Of the 464 items used to calculate inflation, 251 saw price increases, especially public transportation fares, instant coffee powder, and house rents; 42 items remained unchanged, such as water bills and property insurance premiums; while 171 items decreased in price, including skin care products and deodorants.
Compared to March 2026, the index rose 2.75%, and the average for the first four months (Jan-Apr) of 2026 increased by 0.32% compared to the same period in 2025. The core inflation rate (general inflation excluding fresh food and energy) in April 2026 rose 0.83% compared to April 2025, accelerating from 0.57% in March 2026.
“In April 2026, ready-to-eat food, which accounts for 14.86% of the inflation basket, rose by 2.51%, contributing significantly to higher inflation. Price hikes have occurred in nearly every province nationwide and are expected to continue and spread further as businesses struggle to absorb increased costs amid the ongoing Middle East crisis. There are concerns that once prices rise, they will be difficult to reduce.”
Breaking down ready-to-eat food prices, meals priced 30-40 baht have increased in 72 provinces; 41-50 baht meals rose in 68 provinces; and 51-60 baht meals increased in 8 provinces, averaging a 5-10 baht rise per dish. Fast food and food ordered through delivery apps have not yet increased prices, with operators continuing promotional campaigns.
For May 2026, inflation is expected to rise 3.06% due to sustained high retail fuel prices following global crude oil costs, increased prices of processed foods reflecting higher costs of meat, fresh vegetables, and transportation, as well as increased travel expenses. Businesses have begun signaling price adjustments for consumer goods. However, factors potentially reducing inflation include ongoing government measures to ease living costs such as the Thai Ruam Thai program, electricity bill reductions, and a slow recovery in key fresh fruit prices.
“OTPS forecasts two inflation scenarios for 2026: a 1.50-2.50% increase with a midpoint of 2.0% if the current situation persists, meaning the conflict continues but is not severe, with oil prices rising sharply only during the first two months before declining and only modest increases in ready-made food prices; and a 2.50-3.50% increase with a midpoint of 3.0% if the conflict intensifies, causing oil prices to rise for the first three months before falling and ready-made food prices to rise more widely.”
Mr. Nantapong also addressed the risk of Thailand's economy entering stagflation, where general inflation rises amid economic slowdown. He explained that stagflation requires declines in domestic consumption, investment, net exports, and employment. Currently, consumption, exports, and investment remain strong, with employment investment growth still low at 0.96%. Thus, Thailand is not in stagflation but risks remain. The government has prepared various economic stimulus measures.
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