The Ministry of Agriculture revealed that agricultural GDP grew by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2026, benefiting from good water availability and weather conditions, while also outlining plans to monitor El Niño and rising energy and fertilizer costs in the second half of the year.
Mr. Suriya Juangroongruangkit, Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, disclosed that the agricultural economy in the first quarter of 2026 (January–March 2026) expanded by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2025. This growth was due to continuous rainfall throughout 2025, which ensured sufficient water in reservoirs and natural sources for planting and crop growth. Additionally, favorable weather conditions supported healthy development of plants and animals. However, in March 2026, the conflict in the Middle East caused global crude oil prices to rise. Nevertheless, domestic fuel price controls in early March 2026, along with existing stocks of some agricultural inputs like chemical fertilizers and pesticides, limited the impact on production costs this quarter. The crop, livestock, and forestry sectors all showed growth.
“For the agricultural economic outlook for the full year 2026, growth is expected between 0.5% and 1.5% compared to 2025. This is supported by adequate water levels in large and medium reservoirs, effective water management, disaster preparedness, continuous control and monitoring of plant, animal, and fish diseases, promotion of agricultural technology and innovation, and enhancement of agricultural product quality and standards. However, risks remain from weather variability, especially the potential onset of El Niño in the second half of 2026, which may cause drought and dry spells, as well as from oil and chemical fertilizer prices, stricter trade policies of key trading partners, exchange rate volatility, and slowing global economic growth,” Mr. Suriya said.
Mr. Suriya added that the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has set strategies for both immediate measures and continuous agricultural development to address various risks. In the short term, priority is given to managing basic factors affecting farmers' production costs, such as distributing diesel and B20 fuel through cooperatives, promoting the combined use of chemical and organic fertilizers based on soil analysis, encouraging biofertilizers and precision agriculture technologies, improving water management, implementing artificial rainmaking, and preparing water pumps in drought-prone areas. These efforts aim to alleviate production costs and mitigate weather-related risks. For ongoing development, the focus is on enhancing production efficiency, reducing costs, and boosting competitiveness by promoting appropriate precision agriculture technologies and innovations according to area capabilities and farmer needs, reskilling and upskilling farmers, and supporting low-interest loans for agricultural machinery to strengthen sustainable resilience.
Regarding Mr. Peeraphan Kothong, Secretary-General of the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE), who provided details for each sector: The crop sector in Q1, the main driver of agricultural growth, expanded by 3.7% compared to the same period in 2025. This was due to sufficient water availability and generally favorable weather, enabling farmers to plant continuously. Key crops with increased output included animal feed corn, sugarcane for factories, rubber, Pattavia pineapple, oil palm, as well as important fruits like durian, mangosteen, and rambutan. Particularly, off-season fruit production in southern Thailand rose due to improved orchard management and previous tree rest and nutrient accumulation. Conversely, rice (both wet and dry season) production declined, influenced by unappealing prices last season leading some farmers to switch to more profitable crops such as sugarcane and animal feed corn. Additionally, some areas experienced delayed floodwater drainage, preventing normal dry-season rice planting. Cassava was affected by lower prices and viral leaf disease in main growing areas, while longan in the eastern region saw reduced flowering and fruit set due to decreased use of flowering stimulants and tree care because of high costs.
As for crop product prices received by farmers this quarter, trends varied. Cassava and longan prices increased due to reduced yields but continued demand, while prices for rice, animal feed corn, sugarcane for factories, Pattavia pineapple, rubber, oil palm, and durian declined due to increased market supply, intensified global competition, and slower demand from trading partners.
Livestock sector expanded by 0.4% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2025. Output volumes of most key livestock products were stable or slightly increased, despite farmers facing high rearing costs. Broiler production expanded to meet domestic and export demand. Egg production rose due to a large number of laying hens in cages and favorable weather from late 2025 to early 2026. Raw milk increased thanks to suitable weather conditions. Pork production remained stable as farmers maintained production levels and controlled sow numbers appropriately to match consumption demand and production costs.
Regarding livestock product prices, broiler prices rose due to high production costs including feed and transportation, along with sustained market demand. In contrast, pork, mixed eggs, and raw milk prices declined due to continuous supply in the market.
Fisheries sector contracted by 1.3% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2025. High production costs, such as feed and energy expenses, coupled with slower market demand, led to decreased marine fishery output, especially whiteleg shrimp and other seafood landed at ports. Some shrimp farmers reduced farming areas, temporarily rested ponds, or lowered stocking rates due to high costs and weather fluctuations affecting water quality. Marine fishery operators reduced fishing trips because fuel is a major cost and prices remain high. However, production of Nile tilapia and catfish increased due to sufficient natural water availability and good farm management. Regarding fishery product prices, Nile tilapia prices rose with increased domestic demand, while whiteleg shrimp prices fell due to processing factories slowing purchases amid reduced foreign orders. Catfish prices dropped due to supply exceeding market demand.
Agricultural services sector contracted by 0.6% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2025. Prices of key crops like dry-season rice and cassava declined in the previous year, causing some farmers to delay, reduce, or halt planting. This led to decreased demand for land preparation and harvesting services, especially for dry-season rice and cassava. The forestry sector grew by 0.5% compared to the same period in 2025, driven by increased eucalyptus demand for domestic pulp production and exports of wood chips to Japan and Indonesia for pulp industry raw materials and biomass power plant fuel. Conversely, rubberwood and charcoal production declined.
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