The Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) revealed that Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has maintained Thailand’s credit rating at A- with a stable outlook, reflecting a strong financial position, and recommended the government expedite economic restructuring efforts.
Ms. Jindarat Viriyathaveekul, Director of the Public Debt Management Office, disclosed that the credit rating agency Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has affirmed Thailand’s credit rating at A- and maintained the country’s credit outlook as stable. R&I provided the following key reasons and factors:
1. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4% in 2025, supported by significant increases in exports and the trade balance between Thailand and the United States, despite uncertainties arising from retaliatory tariff policies. However, in 2026, Thailand’s economy is expected to face pressures from rising global energy prices due to Middle East conflicts, high household debt levels, and structural constraints from an aging population, which may impact consumption and economic growth prospects.
2. The public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 64.7% at the end of September 2025. R&I believes the government can manage public debt within the fiscal discipline framework mandated by law and follow the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) plan to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of GDP by fiscal year 2029. Additionally, most public debt is domestic government bonds, limiting public sector funding risks. However, if global energy prices remain elevated, the government may need to implement further fiscal restructuring measures, such as reviewing public expenditures, adjusting fuel fund mechanisms, or modifying value-added tax policies to maintain fiscal sustainability.
3. R&I views that although fiscal space remains limited, the current government continues to promote the “Thailand 10 Plus” policy to encourage investment in future industries such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles, alongside measures to stimulate domestic consumption. These efforts are expected to support economic growth rates of at least 3% in the coming period.
4. Thailand’s foreign financial sector is strong, with a current account surplus driven by growth in tourism revenues and exports, especially in automotive and electronics products. Foreign direct investment inflows are likely to continue. Moreover, international reserves remain high relative to low foreign debt levels, keeping external liquidity risk limited.
5. A key factor R&I will monitor in considering Thailand’s credit rating is progress in economic restructuring toward future industries, which plays a crucial role in maintaining external financial strength in the medium term.
Overall, the credit rating assessment reflects confidence in Thailand’s stable macroeconomic fundamentals and the government’s economic policies emphasizing fiscal discipline, transparency, and careful management of external risks, alongside structural reforms supporting the transition to a “new economy.” These efforts are expected to transform structural challenges into development opportunities, enhance national competitiveness, and support Thailand’s economic growth in both the short and long term.