The NESDC expects Thailand's exports in 2026 to grow by up to 8%, reaching a value of $366 billion or 11.7 trillion baht, an all-time high. This is driven by strong demand for electronics and technology products and easing conflicts in the Middle East. U.S. tariffs are expected not to exceed current levels. Exports in the first five months already total $162 billion, up 17%, though the trade deficit persists, nearing 1 trillion baht during this period.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (NESDC). He revealed the latest export situation, stating that as of May 2026, the NESDC forecasts Thailand's export value for the full year to grow by up to 8% compared to 2025, reaching $366.8 billion or 11.7 trillion baht, the highest value ever recorded in both USD and baht. This forecast is an improvement from April 2026, when three scenarios were considered: a best-case 8% growth, a base-case 3% growth (most likely), and a worst-case 3% contraction.
"Exports this year approaching 8%, possibly up to 10%, result from easing Middle East conflicts, reducing shipping route tensions and logistics costs returning to normal. Although export surges to avoid higher U.S. tariffs under Section 122 (10%) after late July may slow in the second half, strong growth in electronics and technology products continues due to market demand. The new U.S. tariffs are expected to be no more severe than anticipated, possibly around 12.5% if Thailand is fortunate, and Thai exporters are believed capable of adapting."
Regarding imports, continued growth is expected as Thailand remains part of the global production chain, requiring imports of raw materials and semi-finished goods, as well as capital goods for export production, including fuel. Key import sources include China, Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, Malaysia, the UAE, and South Korea. This has led to a persistent trade deficit with China. In May 2026, Thailand's deficit with China was $7.43 billion, and for January-May, $36.63 billion. Conversely, Thailand maintained a trade surplus with the U.S., with $5.46 billion surplus in May and $27 billion over five months.
However, limited global economic recovery remains a concern, with key pressures from geopolitical uncertainties such as Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade restrictions. The Ministry of Commerce will continue proactive export promotion, restructuring exports toward higher value-added products, addressing trade deficits by expanding exports to new markets, accelerating free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, and aiming for fair tariff rates with the U.S. for mutual benefit.
In May 2026, Thailand's exports reached $34.33 billion or 1.095 trillion baht, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth at 10.6% compared to May 2025. Excluding volatile products like oil, gold, and strategic goods, growth was 8.6%. Imports totaled $40.04 billion or 1.293 trillion baht, rising 35.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.71 billion or 198 billion baht. Over five months, exports reached $162.1 billion (5.10 trillion baht), up 17%, while imports totaled $187.3 billion (5.97 trillion baht), up 35.6%, with a trade deficit of $25.2 billion or 875 billion baht.
Export growth continues to be driven by demand for advanced technology products and global investments in AI and Data Centers. Additionally, increased imports to mitigate supply chain risks and U.S. tariff uncertainties contributed to a 14.4% rise in industrial exports in May 2026, marking 26 months of continuous growth. However, agricultural industrial products declined by 7.2%, the first drop in three months. Increased imports of energy, capital, and raw materials are expected to support future exports.
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