The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) assesses that the ongoing US-Iran situation poses new risks to global oil supply and inflation but is confident Thailand can handle it even if prolonged.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO). He revealed that the renewed US-Iran tensions, if prolonged, will raise risks to global energy supply and inflation in many countries. Although Thailand has faced pressure from rising energy costs, government controls on energy prices and living costs have kept inflation in the first half at a moderate level, enabling the country to absorb future volatility without causing worrying impacts on living expenses.
In Thailand, higher energy prices from previous conflicts have clearly increased upstream costs in Q2, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 8.2% year-on-year, and the Road Freight Transport Index (RFTI) also climbing 11.1% compared to the same period last year. However, energy price regulation policies have helped prevent severe retail energy price fluctuations that would affect people's livelihoods, resulting in inflation rising 2.70% year-on-year in that quarter.
Overall, Thailand's inflation in the first half rose modestly to 1.08%, with the energy sector increasing 4.92% in June 2026 compared to the previous month.
"Although uncertainty remains in the Middle East conflict and global energy prices may rise further, Thailand's effective mechanisms for energy price and living cost control, reflected in inflation staying within the 1–3% target during the first half, combined with the Ministry of Commerce's efforts to ensure fair pricing and prevent excessive price hikes, as well as ongoing business support and relief measures for citizens, give confidence that this situation will not cause worrying living cost impacts," he said.
Nevertheless, to prepare for future uncertainties, businesses and operators should consider improving internal management efficiency to reduce costs and increase product and service competitiveness. They should also explore alternative energy use to reduce oil dependency and build production chain resilience. Meanwhile, consumers might consider making appropriate and value-conscious daily consumption choices alongside careful financial planning, which will help maintain household financial stability and contribute to strengthening Thailand's economy to withstand global economic changes and achieve stable long-term growth.
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