Trade Policy Office Warns Thai Rice and Sugar Exports to China Face Slowdown Risk as China Cuts Imports Advises Focus on Premium Fruit Market

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office warns that exports of “rice and sugar” to China face a risk of slowdown due to China’s goal of increased self-reliance over the next 10 years. It points out that Thailand’s market still has opportunities in premium fruit, processed chicken meat, and aquatic animals.

Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office under the Ministry of Commerce, revealed that studies and monitoring of China’s agricultural import trends show that China is shifting its trade strategy from being a “large-volume import market” to a “market for high-quality and diverse products,” with a growing focus on self-reliance, especially in grains and meat. China is also enhancing its export capacity for vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products to global markets.

This shift aligns with China’s agricultural and food outlook report for 2026–2035, which states that in 2025, China’s total grain production reached a record high of 715 million tons, while total meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time. This has led to a significant decrease in imports of some agricultural products, notably corn down by 80.6% and wheat by 64.4%, while China’s exports of vegetables increased by 6.4%, fruit by 4.4%, and aquatic products by 7.5% compared to 2024.

“Thai rice and sugar” face risks as the Chinese market shows signs of contraction.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office states that key Thai agricultural exports like rice and sugar are in high-risk categories for exports to China and must be closely monitored with strategy adjustments. Reports forecast that China’s rice imports will decline by an average of 9.1% annually, falling to only 0.95 million tons by 2035. Combined with China’s likely increase in rice exports, Thai rice exporters will face intensified global competition.

Regarding sugar, China aims to increase domestic production by an average of 2.5% annually, which is expected to reduce China’s sugar import demand to about 4 million tons by 2035.

Spotlight on opportunities: premium fruit, processed chicken, and aquatic products.

Although China’s growing self-reliance affects some products, Thailand still holds strong opportunities in high-quality goods, detailed as follows.

• Fruit and processed fruit. Despite China exporting more fruit, forecasts indicate China’s import demand will still grow by an average of 6.1% annually and face a long-term fruit trade deficit, presenting a significant opportunity for Thai fruit, especially premium and processed fruit.
• Poultry and processed chicken meat. By 2035, China is expected to import about 1.27 million tons of poultry meat, growing at an average of 2.4% annually, offering opportunities for Thailand, which has high standards in processed chicken production, as well as potential in beef and lamb markets.
• Fishery and aquatic products. Projected to grow by an average of 1.6% annually, reaching 8.08 million tons by 2035, this remains a promising market for Thai shrimp and processed seafood.

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