The IMF warns that the global fragmentation crisis could reduce GDP by 7% and recommends strengthening monetary stability as a protective shield. Meanwhile, the World Bank advises diversifying trade. Thailand promotes a strategy of serving as an economic bridge to overcome walls of conflict.
Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said at a panel discussion titled "Building Resilience in a Divided World" during the 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, stating that conflicts and divisions worldwide will impose costs reducing economic growth or GDP by about 7%, also causing lost business opportunities.
Therefore, to address potential impacts, all countries must prepare by strengthening monetary and fiscal policies. Establishing domestic financial stability will serve as a "protective shield" and "resilience" that helps each country overcome crises and challenges.
Mr. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group, said that although global trade has increased fourfold over the past 20 years, current issues show trade remains concentrated. Developed and developing countries trade among themselves about 20%, while ASEAN countries trade internally at 50-55%.
This proportion indicates trade has not sufficiently diversified or expanded, limiting growth in trade and investment. Therefore, all countries must collaborate to build bridges connecting trade and investment. He also emphasized that the most important investment to address conflicts is "investment in people" especially in education, which drives stronger national development.
Meanwhile, Dr. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, said that when divisions or economic walls arise, Thailand chooses to build bridges to cross them. For example, if war disrupts oil imports from the Middle East, Thailand will shift to alternative sources and seek new markets to reduce economic impact.
Thailand also focuses on building trust locally and globally to position itself as a “mediator” linking large and small countries. This approach benefits Thailand and helps it stand firm amid global conflicts, as evidenced by Thailand being trusted to host this IMF-World Bank meeting.
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