The Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS) expects Thailand's exports in 2026 to achieve record-high growth, surpassing 13.4 trillion baht, benefiting from a strong rebound in electronics and agricultural sectors. They emphasize that the trade deficit should not be a concern, as it reflects imports of raw materials for further production.
Mr. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS). He revealed that for the entire year of 2026, Thai export value could grow between 15-16%, equating to 391.3-394.7 billion US dollars (approximately 13.2-13.3 trillion baht), marking the highest value ever compared to 2025, which grew 12.9% to 339.6 billion USD or 11.1 trillion baht. There is also potential for growth up to 19%, or 404.9 billion USD (13.4 trillion baht), exceeding the recently revised annual target of 8-11% growth compared to 2025.
This outlook is based on export values during the first nine months (Jan-Sep) of 2026 reaching 304.6 billion USD or 9.76 trillion baht, up 19.6% from the same period in 2025. Excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic goods, growth was 19.8%. Specifically, September 2026 export value was 38.4 billion USD or 1.25 trillion baht, a 24% increase from September 2025, marking 27 consecutive months of growth. Excluding oil, gold, and strategic goods, growth was even higher at 28.2%.
Growth was driven by accelerating exports of electronics, while agricultural and food product exports showed strong potential expansion, including natural rubber, frozen fresh chicken, pet food, and various fruits such as fresh durian, mangosteen, and longan. In September 2026, agricultural and agro-industrial exports grew 2.5% for the second consecutive month, and industrial products grew 25.4%, continuing growth for 30 months.
Export markets continued strong growth, with the US up 50.1%, China 18.4%, Japan 19.0%, the European Union (27 countries) 35.0%, ASEAN (5 countries) 27.0%, CLMV 16.6%, Australia 37.7%, Latin America 29.3%, Africa 5.2%, and the United Kingdom 14.6%, among others.
"For the remainder of 2026, exports are expected to continue expanding despite pressures from energy costs, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts that may dampen global purchasing power. Demand for electronics related to AI remains strong, and prices of oil-related products remain high, aligned with global energy prices, alongside the upcoming year-end festival season. The Ministry of Commerce is accelerating efforts to increase export value of goods and services, finalize free trade agreements (FTAs), open new potential markets, and enhance SME competitiveness to diversify export options. Early forecasts for 2027 predict Thai exports will grow 2-4%, supported by electronics and a strengthening global economy," he said.
Mr. Nantapong added that in the first nine months, Thailand's imports totaled 348.3 billion USD or 11.3 trillion baht, growing 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 43.7 billion USD or 1.54 trillion baht. In September 2026 alone, imports were 44.3 billion USD or 1.46 trillion baht, increasing 50.4%, with a trade deficit of 5.86 billion USD or 209.4 billion baht. The nine-month period showed a continued trade deficit with China of 74.5 billion USD; September alone had a deficit of 10.7 billion USD, mainly due to imports of electronic components, electrical appliances, and computers. However, Thailand maintained a trade surplus with the US, totaling 52.5 billion USD over nine months and 7.18 billion USD in September.
"We advise not to focus too much on imports and the trade deficit, because imports mainly consist of raw materials, semi-finished goods, capital goods, and fuels used for producing export products, which will benefit Thailand's exports in the near term. High import values for fuels are due to high global market prices. For other imports like consumer goods and vehicles, Thailand maintains surpluses of 3.1 billion USD and 2.5 billion USD respectively, reflecting a strong production base. Although imports are high, they correspond with high export levels," he explained.