The Meteorological Department forecasts that El Niño may cause reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in some areas of Thailand.
On 16 Jun 2026 GMT+7, the Meteorological Department reported on the El Niño situation and its impact on Thailand’s temperature and rainfall. The department has continuously monitored sea surface temperature variations in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and found that El Niño is currently weak, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific about 0.7 degrees Celsius above normal and continuing to warm.
The Meteorological Department forecasts a high likelihood that El Niño will develop further later this year, with a 63% chance of becoming very strong, 25% chance of strong intensity, and 10% chance of moderate to weak levels.
Forecasts indicate El Niño is likely to intensify in the second half of the year, especially from Nov 2025 to Jan 2026, necessitating close and continuous monitoring of the situation.
Recent observations of sea surface temperature anomalies show that temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are 0.7 degrees Celsius above normal and rising, contributing to the intensification of El Niño. Additionally, increasing warm water masses beneath the surface further support the development of a stronger El Niño.
The department also forecasts that global surface temperatures will tend to be above normal in many areas, especially during the latter half of the rainy season, with rainfall likely decreasing in some parts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while increasing in others. These changes affect the monsoon system and rainfall distribution in Southeast Asia, including Thailand.
Regarding impacts on Thailand, the department expects El Niño to reduce rainfall and raise temperatures in some areas. However, rainfall may be near or above normal during periods when monsoon troughs pass through, bringing moisture from the Andaman Sea, the Gulf of Thailand, and the South China Sea.