Pichai predicts that the 2026 economy will be poor with low growth, pointing out that exports, investment, and tourism will be decisive. He advises choosing parties that address debt problems, promote investment in future industries, and fix low agricultural product prices.
On 5 Jan 2026, Mr. Pichai Naripthaphan, former Commerce Minister, said the economy in 2026 is likely to be poor with low growth. Various sources predict growth of just over 1%, some even suggesting the worst in 30 years. Many key drivers of Thailand's economy seem to be stalling, despite the overall economy doing well since the 2023 election. Exports grew 5.4% in 2024 and are expected to grow about 11-12% in 2025, but exports in 2026 look set to deteriorate, possibly growing very little or even contracting.
Furthermore, investment in 2024 saw promotion approvals totaling 1.14 trillion baht, the highest in years, with almost all actually invested. In 2025, investment promotion applications reached 1.37 trillion baht in the first nine months, but actual investment slowed. Investors are likely waiting for the upcoming election. Tourism saw increased investor interest late last year, with hopes that tourist arrivals will rise throughout this year.
Mr. Pichai stated that economic problem-solving measures must be urgently implemented, especially by political parties campaigning to govern the country. Once in government, they must act quickly. He proposes the following approaches:
/1./ Domestic Consumption Thailand’s low economic growth over the past decade has kept incomes stagnant while debt has risen significantly, especially household debt reaching 87-88% of GDP. This means most income goes to debt repayment, leaving little for spending. Therefore, urgently resolving debt problems is crucial, including addressing rising non-performing loans in the business sector. Additionally, liquidity in the economy must be increased, and commercial banks should extend more loans to SMEs. The gap between lending and deposit rates (NIM) should also narrow. Thus, policies to solve both household and business debt and to increase liquidity must be prioritized after the election.
/2./ Exports Exports performed well over the past two years—5.4% growth in 2024 and about 11-12% in 2025—after averaging just over 1% annually in the previous decade. However, exports in 2026 may deteriorate again, possibly turning negative. For a developing country like Thailand, exports are vital for economic growth and essential to escape the middle-income trap and become a high-income country. Vietnam’s strong economic growth is largely due to its export expansion, which has surpassed Thailand’s for several years. Mid-2025, Pichai forecast exports would grow over 10% and be the economy’s hero, despite skepticism from some academics and analysts who predicted a second-half decline; the actual 11-12% growth confirmed his forecast. Increasing exports further depends on factors like preventing excessive baht appreciation—which currently exceeds fundamentals and harms the economy, especially exports—maintaining good relations with trading partners, expanding free trade agreements (FTAs), and boosting foreign investment, especially in export-related sectors that have shrunk for a long time. Additionally, exports to neighbors like Cambodia—where Thailand has a large trade surplus—and Myanmar have declined due to ongoing uncontrollable conflicts. Therefore, export expansion is a key economic policy after the election.
/3./ Investment Investment in Thailand has declined for over a decade due to domestic political issues. Investment began recovering in 2024 with promotion applications totaling 1.14 trillion baht, all realized. In 2025, applications reached 1.37 trillion baht in the first nine months and are expected to grow further by year-end, though actual investment may lag as investors remain cautious amid political uncertainty and await elections. Most investments are in future industries such as semiconductors, printed circuit boards (PCB), electric vehicles (EV), data centers, AI, and clean energy—industries crucial to the world’s future. Investment in these sectors must increase significantly. Credit goes to the Board of Investment for its hard work and good results, including the recent FastPass program to accelerate investment in these industries. Thus, promoting investment in future industries is a vital national policy.
/4./ Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Negotiations FTAs are crucial for Thailand’s trade and investment. Thailand has not successfully negotiated FTAs with major countries for over 10 years due to domestic political problems. At the end of 2024, on 30 Nov, Thailand concluded an FTA with the EFTA group—Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein—and signed the agreement on 23 Jan 2025 in Davos, Switzerland, during the WEF meeting. This was Thailand’s first FTA in Europe, restoring its global trade map position and significantly increasing trade and investment, contributing to export growth. Later, Thailand signed an FTA with Bhutan on 3 Apr 2025 during the Bimstec meeting in Bangkok, hoping to negotiate an FTA with the European Union by late 2025. However, political changes delayed completion. Negotiations are also underway with South Korea, ASEAN-Canada, and the UAE, expected to finish in 2025 but remain incomplete. Vietnam’s higher investment and export levels partly stem from having many more FTAs—covering over 60 countries—compared to Thailand’s 24. Therefore, accelerating FTA negotiations is a top priority. Pichai praised the Commerce Ministry and Trade Negotiations Department officials for their expertise and successful negotiation efforts.
/5./ Trade Negotiations with the United States The US is Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18% of exports, with Thailand holding a trade surplus of over one trillion baht annually. Thus, finding a substitute market for the US is nearly impossible, and products for other markets differ from those for the US. This excludes supply chain goods sent to other countries for US export. Hence, trade negotiations with the US are critically necessary. According to US information, the Thai Commerce Minister’s public statements demanding the US beg Thailand likely displeased the US, which recently conducted a military operation to capture the Venezuelan leader and his wife for prosecution in the US.
/6./ Low Agricultural Product Prices Low agricultural product prices have been a problem for every government and require systemic solutions. The types of products grown must clearly meet market demand, cultivation must be efficient and high-quality, and products should be specialty items commanding higher prices. For example, jasmine rice’s unique qualities help maintain and potentially increase its price, whereas ordinary white rice faces stiff competition from India and Vietnam, which have much lower costs and higher efficiency. India also holds tens of millions of tons in stockpiles ready for sale. Thus, managing agricultural prices requires cooperation among multiple ministries, especially the Ministry of Agriculture, responsible for production, product types, and efficiency. Recently, although China announced plans to buy 500,000 tons of Thai rice, no orders had been placed by year-end.
/7./ Addressing Low-Quality Goods and Nominee Problems This issue significantly impacts SMEs, as cheap imports flood the Thai market, making competition impossible for Thai SMEs. Pichai has prosecuted over 57,739 cases involving illegal goods and taken action against 861 nominee businesses, with damages exceeding 15.3 billion baht, but efforts must continue. Policies to tackle low-quality imports and nominee issues are essential to protect Thai businesses.
Mr. Pichai concluded that these economic policies are among the urgent measures the new government must consider to advance Thailand’s economy. The country has faced long-standing economic challenges; without prompt action, Thailand risks permanently low growth, unable to escape the middle-income trap.