“Decharat” pointed out that the coconut price crisis is not just caused by excess production but also by an unfair market structure. He recommended that the government accelerate absorbing the surplus into processing and enforce laws to regulate illegal middlemen.
On 3 March 2026, Mr. Decharat Sukkamnerd, Director of the Think Forward Center, People's Party, shared his views on the fragrant coconut price situation, government response measures, and solutions. He stated that fragrant coconut is an important economic crop in Thailand, with nationwide production of about 550 million fruits per year, over 80% grown in the central region. However, farmers have faced severe price drops during peak harvest periods, especially in the third and fourth quarters, causing farmgate prices to fall to only 3–5 baht per fruit, below production costs.
The problem of fragrant coconut prices is not solely due to oversupply but also results from an opaque market structure, unbalanced bargaining power between farmers and purchasing middlemen, lack of mechanisms to absorb excess production during crises, and limited opportunities for new-generation farmers to add value through processing.
Decharat further explained that Thailand’s fragrant coconut market expanded rapidly between 2020 and 2022, peaking in 2023 with annual exports exceeding 416,000 tons and export value nearly 10 billion baht. Over 80% of these exports went to the People’s Republic of China. However, export issues began mid-2023 due to El Niño causing reduced fragrant coconut production and lower export volumes, which became evident in 2024. Although 2025 saw a 9.7% increase in young coconut exports, export value fell to about 6.5 billion baht, a 15.2% drop compared to the previous year and only one-third of 2023’s value.
He confirmed that the fragrant coconut price crisis in 2025 was caused by a 22.8% decrease in unit export value from 2024, pressuring farmgate prices downward. At the destination market in Sinfati, Beijing, China, fragrant coconut prices continuously declined in 2025, dropping by 40% when comparing January 2025 to January 2026. This downward pressure caused Thailand’s export prices to fall by 60%, which in turn reduced farmgate prices received by farmers by 83% over the same period.
Decharat added that although it may seem the low farmgate prices mirror falling export prices, a detailed analysis shows that when export prices were above 30 baht/kg, farmers received about 63.1% of the export price. However, when export prices fell below 30 baht/kg, farmers’ share dropped to approximately 31.1%, and below 20 baht/kg, farmers received only about 22.1% of the export price.
Recommendation to enforce laws on illegal middlemen.
This phenomenon reflects that the lower the export prices fall, the more farmgate prices decrease, as farmers have less bargaining power in setting prices. Comparing a 10% increase in export demand for coconuts to a 55.3% increase in young coconut supply in 2025, the surplus production further weakens farmers’ bargaining power and may cause continued price declines. Farmers have expressed concerns that foreign capital might dominate the entire market process for purchasing and exporting fragrant coconuts in Thailand. They demand government investigation and law enforcement against unregistered illegal middlemen and scrutiny of foreign nominees leasing or purchasing agricultural land.
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Decharat continued that during 2025–2026, the government has taken various measures: listing fragrant coconuts as a monitored fruit by the Fruit Board; assigning the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) to survey planting areas for coordinated production and marketing planning; price intervention through state agencies purchasing at a market-leading price of 5 baht per fruit via cooperatives; and investigating foreign capital groups by the Department of Business Development to prevent nominee arrangements or illegal business operations by Chinese investors.
However, so far these government measures have not been effective. The average farmgate price in February 2026 remained at 3.20 baht per fruit, down from 5.75 baht in December 2025, because government purchasing is limited—only 1–2 million fruits—while actual market supply is several hundred thousand fruits daily with significant excess production. Some measures, such as data surveys, opening new markets, price monitoring, or nominee investigations, take time and have not raised prices in the short term. Campaigns to sell young coconuts domestically through regular channels like modern trade or online have not increased overall consumption but merely shifted consumption from existing sources. Additionally, laws are incomplete; for example, the Price of Goods and Services Act has not been applied, which could require buyers and exporters to report transactions, enabling better oversight of unfair purchasing practices.
Decharat added that since Sinfati market prices in Beijing at the start of 2026 have not improved while production continues steadily, prices may fall further mid-2026. Therefore, the People's Party proposes that the government implement serious and adequate measures to stabilize prices as follows.
1. Absorb about 20 million excess fragrant coconuts, splitting 10 million in the second and third quarters and 10 million in the fourth quarter—roughly 100,000 fruits per day from an average daily production of 1.7 million fruits—using a purchase budget of about 200 million baht. These will be processed into frozen coconut water and concentrated coconut water for preservation and value addition.
2. Use the Price of Goods and Services Act (1999) to regulate fair purchasing of fragrant coconuts by declaring them controlled goods; register and monitor purchasing middlemen; enforce standard purchase receipts specifying price, quantity, and quality deductions; require reporting of purchase volumes, storage, and exports; and establish a public price board for transparency and stable, fair pricing.
3. Support utilization of frozen and concentrated coconut water, particularly by SMEs such as cafes, bakeries, ice cream shops, beverage producers, with six-month raw material trade credit and processing subsidies of 3 baht per liter (about 1 baht per fruit).
4. Set a target price of 7.5 baht per fruit in the third quarter of 2026.