The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) assesses three scenarios if the Middle East war lasts for three months, potentially driving inflation up. It reveals that since clashes began, Thai oil consumption has increased beyond 118 million liters per day. Officials urge people not to panic or hoard but to continue living normally.
On the evening of 17 Mar 2026 GMT+7, Mr. Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the NESDC, revealed after the meeting of the Center for Management and Monitoring of the Middle East Conflict Situation (CMMC) regarding the assessment of the Middle East conflict. The NESDC has developed three main hypotheses to evaluate the global and Thai economic impacts concerning energy price concerns, inflation, and financial market stability.
Hypothesis 1: If the situation resolves within one month, (approximately mid-March to end of April) the impact would be limited. The global economy would slow due to upward pressure on oil prices, causing inflation to rise, financial markets to fluctuate, and the baht to weaken at times—sometimes more than regional peers. The average oil price for the year is expected not to exceed $85 per barrel, higher than the pre-conflict estimate of $58–68 per barrel. Thai inflation may rise around 1%.
Hypothesis 2: If the conflict prolongs for three months, there is a risk of stagflation if the conflict intensifies but does not widen, affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz more severely. Ships may be blocked, extending the disruption for three months. This could lead many countries into recession and some into stagflation. The average oil price could be $95–105 per barrel, with Thai inflation potentially soaring to 1.9%.
and Hypothesis 3: The outbreak of a large-scale war, which is considered unlikely, would push oil prices above $120 per barrel and inflation could exceed the 3% target.
Oil prices will mainly affect three key sectors: 1. Agriculture, 2. Manufacturing industry, and 3. Transportation.
The NESDC Secretary-General added that normally daily gasoline consumption in Thailand is 34 million liters. Since Iran's infrastructure attacks began on 1 Mar 2026, gasoline consumption was 28.97 million liters. After refinery attack reports, gasoline consumption rose to 50.77 million liters and diesel to 61 million liters. On 2 Mar, total consumption reached 98 million liters, and by 4 Mar, diesel use increased to 118 million liters. The rise reflects public fears of potential shortages.
“Please be assured that the Ministry of Energy reports daily on how many days the current oil supply can last without additional imports. Thailand still has sufficient oil volume.”
Energy Minister Attaphol Rerkpiboon added that these factors have caused shortages at gas stations, but oil transport requires specific vehicles, not just any trucks. Last Monday, oil transport operated all day, enabling more deliveries from storage to stations. The oil situation in Thailand is sufficient; there is no need to panic or rush to fill up. He emphasized that oil price adjustments by the Ministry of Energy have never been abrupt but are spaced according to circumstances. Therefore, there is no reason to hoard; everyone should continue living normally.