KPI Poll reveals a divided Thai public on whether they trust the new government to handle the impacts of the Middle East crisis, supporting the government to 'remain neutral,' focus on supporting Thai citizens and national interests, and accelerate measures to buffer the economic crisis.
On 27 Mar 2026 CE, the King Prajadhipok's Institute announced survey results on "Confidence and expectations toward the new government in managing the impacts of the Middle East crisis." Associate Professor Dr. Issara Seriwatthanawut, Secretary-General of the King Prajadhipok's Institute and Director of the KPI Poll Center, outlined the key policy to make KPI Poll an academic poll designed to reflect political realities with neutrality, truthfulness, and usefulness. It adheres to academic standards and accuracy, not aiming to influence politics but to 'listen' to politics through citizens' voices, providing KPI Poll data as an essential knowledge base for politicians, political parties, academics, and the public to serve as a "democratic think tank" for Thai society in a genuine sense.
The survey was conducted from 13 to 16 Mar 2026 CE among 2,000 citizens aged 18 and older nationwide. The key findings are as follows.
1. The biggest concerns from the US–Iran conflict (surveyed by x Line Today)
• 78.9% are most concerned about rising oil prices and living costs (transportation, food, travel), far ahead of other worries.
• Next, 9.3% worry about fake news causing panic and division; 5.8% about risks to energy and trade disruptions via shipping routes; 5.4% about terrorism and regional unrest; and 0.6% about the safety of Thais abroad, including workers in the Middle East.
This shows over three-quarters of citizens are more concerned about livelihoods than security or diplomacy. Meanwhile, fake news as the second major concern reflects worries about misinformation causing confusion, panic, and social division.
Divided views on trust in the government's handling
2. Public opinion is divided: nearly half trust the new government to handle the Middle East crisis, but a comparable share do not.
• 46.2% "somewhat trust to fully trust" the new government to manage impacts from the US–Iran conflict, while 40.4% "somewhat distrust to completely distrust," and 13.4% are "unsure."
Although trust slightly leads, the sizable proportion of distrust means it is premature to say the government has clearly 'passed' public judgment. The government must demonstrate concrete crisis management ability.
"Bangkok residents and Gen Z" contrast with "Southerners and seniors"
3. "Bangkok residents and Gen Z" show low confidence in government handling of war impacts, contrasting with "Southern people and seniors."
• The South shows the highest confidence (70.4%), followed by Northeast (53.9%) and North (36.8%). Bangkok has the highest distrust (57.6%), followed by Central (56.0%) and East (51.7%).
• Baby Boomers have the highest trust (53.1%), followed by Gen X (47.6%) and Gen Y (47.1%). Gen Z is the only group where a majority (49.0%) distrust the government.
. . . Distrust from "urban residents, young people, and major economic zones" may reflect sensitivity to living costs, intensive information exposure, and higher expectations of government efficiency. The government should emphasize speed, transparency, and clear communication of tangible measures.
Support for focusing on protecting Thai citizens
4. Over half of Thais support the new government "remaining neutral," focusing on protecting Thai citizens and national interests, while urgently pushing economic shock mitigation measures.
• 52.5% believe the government should maintain neutrality, prioritizing aid to Thai people and national interests.
• Next, 16.3% say economic measures to absorb shocks should be prioritized over international posturing; 12.8% support security and intelligence cooperation to prevent domestic risks; 7.3% favor proactive diplomacy to call for ceasefire or negotiations via international forums; 11.1% are unsure or unable to answer.
The public does not expect Thailand to take sides or play symbolic international roles first, but to act with 'mission-oriented neutrality'—remaining neutral to protect Thai people, safeguard national interests, and minimize domestic repercussions, especially on living costs and economic security.
Summary from the 14th KPI Poll
This survey reflects not only public anxiety over the Middle East conflict but also a "test of the new government's capability" to protect citizens' livelihoods and daily security. While trust slightly leads, it is insufficient for full public confidence. The government should urgently take three concurrent actions: 1) implement rapid measures to ease living cost shocks; 2) communicate facts and response plans clearly and consistently; and 3) deliver tangible results showing it can manage this crisis and prevent it from becoming a household crisis.