Supachai expects GDP growth over 2% in 2026 if the U.S. signs a peace agreement, believing the situation will improve after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
On 16 Jun 2026 GMT+7, Supachai Sutthumpan, Minister of Commerce, commented on the U.S. preparing to sign an official peace agreement with Iran, saying it is a positive development. She noted that export targets for the first quarter of 2026 are very good, suggesting a favorable direction. However, she emphasized the need to continue monitoring the situation closely and to prepare as best as possible.
Regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the situation remains unchanged for now, so they must wait for the peace agreement to be signed. If it proceeds, it would benefit everyone. The outlook should become clearer within the next one to two days. Nevertheless, preparations must be maximized to be ready for any scenario. The Ministry of Commerce will monitor commodity price movements and relevant measures, with a summary expected today.
When asked if GDP targets would need revision, Supachai said the first quarter GDP was 2.8%. A review is necessary because the 2026 annual GDP target was originally set between 1.5% and 3% assuming the current situation continues. With the peace agreement signing becoming clearer, GDP is expected to improve. Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz would face fewer obstacles, and energy prices, a key factor, should ease, boosting purchasing power and trade.