Minister Suchart warned of the prolonged El Niño condition expected to last until 2027 and unveiled a high-resolution climate database to combat drought. The Director-General of the Department of Climate Change and Environment admitted that this winter might not be as cold as last year.
On 16 June 2026, Mr. Suchart Chomklin, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, emphasized the latest reports from international climate agencies such as NOAA, IRI, and ECMWF. They uniformly predict a very high probability of 96-98% that the world will enter an El Niño phase between June and July 2026, continuing through early 2027. Models indicate the peak intensity will occur from November 2026 to January 2027, potentially causing significant economic and social damage if unprepared. Key policies set include systematic water management and disaster prevention, development of a national disaster insurance system, pushing for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and sustainable conservation and utilization of natural resources. The minister assigned the Department of Climate Change and Environment to proactively advance policies by creating a high-resolution climate database to mitigate losses and build national resilience, while urgently educating the public and relevant agencies.
Dr. Pirun Saiyasitpanich, Director-General of the Department of Climate Change and Environment, said Thailand should closely monitor impacts as El Niño begins. From June 2026 to January 2027, rainfall will be below normal in many areas. Although the southwest monsoon during June to August brings moisture, increasing El Niño severity usually reduces rainy season precipitation. Additionally, tropical cyclones in the Pacific may form farther from Asia between September and October; if they do not approach Thailand, late rainy season rainfall will decline further. Southern Thailand is likely to face reduced rainfall in December and January, its usual rainy season. Average temperatures will be slightly higher, causing generally warmer conditions, especially from December 2026 to February 2027, leading to a milder winter than last year.
Dr. Pirun added that, in line with the minister's policy, the Department of Climate Change and Environment has developed climate projection data up to 2100 under current emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5) and high emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5) with resolutions of 25 x 25 km and 5 x 5 km. The data include rainfall, maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, and relative humidity, and are shared with agencies for long-term flood and drought planning. All data are hosted on the Climate Change Information Center, serving as a central platform for comprehensive national climate change information. The department is also collaborating with Weather News Inc. to develop high-resolution flood risk data for rivers at 90 x 90 meters resolution, expected to be completed by early 2027.
Facing increasingly severe extreme climate variability, the Department of Climate Change and Environment will develop a detailed Climate Risk Map at the subdistrict level, covering hazards such as floods, droughts, landslides, sea level rise, and temperature increases. Completion is targeted by 2028. This scientific tool aims to strengthen national resilience, with key benefits including:
Identifying vulnerable areas and resource management: The primary benefit of the Climate Risk Map is integrating climate data with high-resolution spatial information. This enables government and related agencies to precisely locate communities, agricultural zones, or economic areas vulnerable to hazards like severe droughts, flash floods, or seawater intrusion. Such data are critical for allocating budgets, workforce planning, and targeted preparedness, marking a shift from reactive disaster response to proactive prevention.
Strengthening food security and local economies: Economically, the map serves as a guide for agriculture. When farmers and agricultural agencies understand drought or flood risk trends and locations in advance, they can adjust planting calendars, select resilient crop varieties, or prepare water reserves appropriately. This informed adaptation protects farmers’ incomes and maintains national food security against climate crises.
Urban planning and resilient infrastructure development: The Climate Risk Map also plays a vital role in guiding urban planning and infrastructure design. Incorporating risk data helps authorities avoid building critical infrastructure in hazard-prone areas or design public utilities, such as drainage systems and roads, with enhanced climate resilience.
