The NIDA Poll confidently predicts the 2026 Bangkok governor election results, with Chadchart leading comfortably in first place, leaving the second place far behind.
On 28 June 2026, the NIDA Poll released a survey of opinions from Bangkok residents aged 18 and over eligible to vote, covering all 50 districts with a total sample of 3,000 respondents. The poll showed that 73.70% would choose Mr. Chadchart Sittipunt (Independent) as their first choice for governor. In second place, 12.10% supported Mrs. Mallika Boonmitrakul Mahasuk (Independent), followed by Mr. Chaiwat Stavaravijit (People’s Party) at 8.37%. Fourth place went to Mr. Anucha Burapachaisri (Democrat Party) with 3.43%, and fifth place was Mom Luang Korakasiwat Kasemsri (Independent) at 1.40%. The remaining 1.00% favored other candidates such as Mr. Samai Lalert, Mr. Pongsak Puapornpong, Mr. Komsan Phanchatkul, Mr. Prateep Watcharachokkasem, Police Lieutenant General Chanthep Sesavej, as well as those who chose not to vote (Vote No).
Additionally, NIDA Poll projected vote counts based on actual voter turnout. If turnout reaches a maximum of 65%, Mr. Chadchart is expected to receive approximately 2,159,328 votes, while second place Mrs. Mallika would garner about 354,516 votes.
Meanwhile, KPI Poll found that incumbent Mr. Chadchart maintains the lead with 53.6% popularity, followed by Mr. Chaiwat Stavaravijit at 12.0%, Mrs. Mallika Boonmitrakul Mahasuk at 9.8%, Mr. Anucha Burapachaisri at 6.6%, and Mom Luang Korakasiwat Kasemsri at 2.3%. Other candidates collectively received 9.9%, with 4.9% undecided and 0.9% choosing no candidate (Vote No).
Using these percentages to estimate actual vote counts based on a 60.73% turnout (matching the 2022 election), with 2,689,517 voters expected, the forecast is: Mr. Chadchart receiving 1,441,581 votes, Mr. Chaiwat 322,742 votes, and Mrs. Mallika 263,573 votes.
If turnout drops to 55% (about 5-6% lower than 2022), with 2,435,755 voters, the projected vote counts are: Mr. Chadchart 1,305,564 votes, Mr. Chaiwat 292,291 votes, and Mrs. Mallika 238,704 votes.
In the scenario of a 50% turnout (approximately 10-11% lower than 2022), with 2,214,323 voters, the forecasted votes are: Mr. Chadchart 1,186,877 votes, Mr. Chaiwat 265,719 votes, and Mrs. Mallika 217,004 votes.