Nida Poll reveals survey results on “Latest Unrest: What Do Southern Border People Think?” finding “budget and grey capital” as main culprits—pointing to loopholes in state strategy causing prevention failure. . Calls on government to urgently overhaul intelligence.
30 Aug 2026 GMT+7: The Nida Poll Center, from the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), released survey results from 1,100 residents in the three southern border provinces (Narathiwat, Pattani, and Yala) conducted from 25-27 Aug 2026 GMT+7. The topic, “Latest Unrest: What Do Southern Border People Think?” reflects deep local perspectives on the background and factors behind the recent failure to prevent unrest.
1. Background of the Incident: “Budget and Grey Capital” Surpass Separatism Issues
When asked about the underlying motives behind the unrest, most locals expressed views linking the issue more to interests and politics than purely ideological motives:
• Rank 1 (35.73%): Related to “budget” in the area
• Rank 2 (30.36%): Due to “grey capital groups” (drug trafficking, smuggling, mafia protection rackets) unhappy with strict government crackdowns
• Rank 3 (29.64%): Linked to local politics
• Rank 4 (27.64%): Situation-building ahead of upcoming peace talks
• Rank 5 (26.27%): Separatist groups cooperating with grey capital to create unrest
• Other notable rankings:
◦ Separatists unhappy with state crackdowns (20.27%)
◦ Connected to national politics (19.09%)
◦ Emerging youth showing potential (12.82%)
◦ Linked to the seasonal rotation of senior officials (12.00%)
◦ Symbolic unrest before the cabinet meeting in Songkhla (4.09%)
Points to Coordination Gaps
2. Security Vulnerabilities: Points to “Defective State Strategy and Lack of Coordination” as Causes of Prevention Failure Regarding the key reasons why state officials failed to prevent the recent unrest, most locals see structural and administrative problems within the government:
• Rank 1 (40.82%): Flaws in policies, strategies, and direction in solving the problem
• Rank 2 (39.91%): Ineffective coordination among relevant agencies
• Rank 3 (34.27%): Negligence of officials
• Rank 4 (29.73%): Deficiencies in intelligence work
• Rank 5 (29.36%): Insurgents dispersed across many areas, making prevention difficult
• Additional observations: Some see overly lenient law enforcement (18.82%), lack of public cooperation (18.09%), senior officials not being locals (11.55%), and insufficient personnel (10.64%) as contributing factors.
Calls on Government to Urgently Overhaul Intelligence
This poll clearly shows that southern residents in the three provinces view the unrest problem differently than before, emphasizing “budget, conflicting interests, and grey capital” over purely ideological struggles. It also sends a warning signal to the government to urgently revamp “strategies, intelligence, and inter-agency integration” to close operational gaps that lead to recurring incidents.
