The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has proposed three options for increasing electricity rates for the May to August 2026 period, with rates ranging from 3.95 to 4.59 baht per unit. It disclosed that the US-Iran conflict has driven gas prices close to 20 dollars per million BTU, and that it will continue implementing cost management measures to reduce the impact on the public’s cost of living.
On 25 Mar 2026 GMT+7, Dr. Poolpat Leesombatpaiboon, Secretary-General of the Energy Regulatory Commission Office and spokesperson for the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), revealed that at the 10th ERC meeting of 2026 (the 1000th meeting), held on Monday, 16 Mar 2026 GMT+7, the commission resolved to open a public consultation on the fuel adjustment charge (Ft) for electricity billing from May to August 2026, offering three scenarios with rates ranging from 3.95 to 4.59 baht per unit.
“Although fuel costs, particularly global natural gas and LNG prices, have risen due to global energy market conditions combined with exchange rate volatility, which pressure electricity rates for the upcoming period, the ERC still has tools and mechanisms to manage and reduce impacts on electricity consumers. These include considering the use of Claw back funds and gradually managing the outstanding cost burden (AF) appropriately. This enables the ERC to balance reflecting true costs while keeping electricity rates reasonable, maintaining the financial stability of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and PTT Public Company Limited, alongside overall energy system security,” Dr. Poolpat said during the press conference.
Previously, the ERC has been gradually repaying fuel cost debts from the outstanding cost burden (AF) to EGAT and PTT continuously. Between September and December 2025, the ERC resolved to use 2.64 billion baht of excess revenue recovery funds to help reduce electricity costs and agreed to gradually refund AFGas over six installments, starting with the second installment in September-December 2025. By the end of December 2025, the outstanding AF balance had decreased to 35.928 billion baht, and the state enterprise’s outstanding natural gas cost fell to about 10.3 billion baht. Although significantly reduced, this remains a negative factor pressuring the Ft rate until all outstanding fuel cost burdens to EGAT and PTT—assumed on behalf of electricity consumers in previous periods—are fully repaid.
At the 10th ERC meeting of 2026 (the 1000th meeting) on Monday, 16 Mar 2026 GMT+7, the ERC considered the service rate-setting criteria under Section 65 of the Energy Industry Act 2007 and Section 67, which requires licensees, namely EGAT, to propose service rates for ERC approval. This process is clear, transparent, and includes stakeholder consultation as mandated by law. The commission resolved to proceed with public consultation on the Ft for electricity billing from May to August 2026 under three scenarios, as follows.
Scenario 1: Calculated Ft adjustment formula (full repayment of outstanding EGAT costs). The retail Ft would be 0.8060 baht per unit, reflecting the May-August 2026 cost trend of 0.2966 baht per unit plus the actual outstanding cost burden (AF) to EGAT of 35.928 billion baht (equivalent to 0.5094 baht per unit). EGAT will be fully reimbursed by April 2026 for fuel and power purchase costs it bore on behalf of consumers during the recent energy price crisis, enabling quick repayment of liquidity loans and restoration of normal financial status. Including the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit, this would raise the average electricity price (excluding VAT) to 4.59 baht per unit, an 18% increase from the current 3.88 baht per unit. This estimate does not yet include the projected AFGas adjustment for May-August 2026 (third installment) of 2.58 billion baht or about 0.0366 baht per unit.
Scenario 2: FAC cost for the period (EGAT’s proposal). The retail Ft would be 0.2966 baht per unit, reflecting the May-August 2026 cost trend. In this case, EGAT would absorb the outstanding AF cost of 35.928 billion baht (equivalent to 0.5094 baht per unit) on behalf of consumers. Combined with the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit, the average electricity price (excluding VAT) would rise to 4.08 baht per unit, a 5% increase from the current 3.88 baht per unit.
Scenario 3: FAC cost for the period combined with the ERC’s consideration to use Claw back funds to alleviate consumer impact. The retail Ft would be 0.1623 baht per unit, reflecting the May-August 2026 cost trend of 0.2966 baht per unit. In this scenario, EGAT would absorb the outstanding AF cost of 35.928 billion baht (0.5094 baht per unit) on behalf of consumers, while the ERC considers applying the full Claw back funds held by the electricity authority, about 9.472 billion baht (equivalent to 0.1343 baht per unit), to reduce the electricity cost burden amid the global energy crisis caused by Middle East unrest. Including the base electricity rate of 3.78 baht per unit, the average electricity price (excluding VAT) would rise to 3.95 baht per unit, a 2% increase from the current 3.88 baht per unit.