Dr. Thon warns that El Niño will definitely arrive within 1-2 months, with a hotter and drier end of year than usual, likely extending into early next year. He advises storing water while supplies last, as we may face a triple impact from global warming, El Niño, and war.
On 17 May 2026, Associate Professor Dr. Thon Thamrongnawasawat, a marine scientist and faculty member of the Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Fisheries, Kasetsart University, posted a message on Facebook.Thon ThamrongnawasawatHe said El Niño will definitely come in 1-2 months and it will be strong. We will have a hotter and drier late year than usual, and it will likely extend into early next year.
Latest data from NOAA indicates this, starting from the agreement among various models that El Niño will definitely occur.
Dr. Thon's colleague looked at the bar graph showing the rapidly increasing chance of occurrence. It will likely start this or next month, then grow stronger. The deep red bars indicate the chance of a “strong” event (exceeding 2 degrees Celsius). October to November will show increasing chances above 2 degrees, which is considered strong. Previously, in 2024, the peak did not reach 2 degrees.
Predictions end before the year’s end because long-range forecasts may be less accurate, but the trend shows we will have a severe December, and El Niño will likely continue into the new year. Looking at the map, I circled the sea area that will be very hot (red) in November. By then, we will see impacts on both water and weather, probably extending through December to February. Hopefully, it won’t last into the next hot season, or it will be worse. Even recently, under normal conditions, coastal waters were over 31 degrees Celsius, causing some coral bleaching and an unexplained increase in blue-green algae.
Global warming causes everything to become unstable. If El Niño intensifies the situation, it will be distressing. Store water while it is still available. The Meteorological Department estimates less rain this rainy season compared to last year, with possible prolonged dry spells. The war shows no sign of ending. We are facing three simultaneous challenges: global warming, El Niño, and war.
Information from the Facebook page Thon Thamrongnawasawat