As the Thai New Year returns, the stories of ‘Nang Songkran’ and associated predictions always appear alongside the festival. These are not merely superstitions but were actually ancient state communication strategies using folklore or legends as tools to disseminate information and organize society, such as weather warnings for the predominantly farming population.
The identification of which animal Nang Songkran rides, what weapon she carries, or what she eats serves as a transformation of complex astronomical calculations into easily understood symbols. This allowed villagers to anticipate whether there would be abundant or scarce water, and whether rains would fall seasonally, enabling them to prepare for droughts, floods, and plan their farming accordingly.
It is therefore intriguing to consider how applying this mindset to decode this year’s Songkran prediction might overlay ancient omens with the environmental and economic crises currently unfolding.
How are the predictions calculated?
The process of predicting Nang Songkran involves astronomical and mathematical calculations based on the ‘Suriyayat scripture,’ examining which day of the week the ‘Great Songkran Day’ falls on—that is, the day the sun enters Aries. Each of the seven Nang Songkran days has a specific name, vehicle, and diet assigned. This year falls on Tuesday, represented by ‘Nang Raksasadevi,’ who rides a pig and consumes blood as food.
Next, the ‘time’ of the sun’s entry into Aries determines her posture: if between morning and noon, she arrives standing; noon to evening, sitting; evening to midnight, lying awake; and midnight to morning, lying asleep. This year, the sun’s entry is between morning and noon, so Nang Raksasadevi arrives standing, symbolizing full power. However, the prediction warns of potential turmoil around midyear.
For predictions related to food security, the ‘Chulasakarat’ year number is used in a formula to find the remainder when divided by four to assess water quantity: remainder 1 indicates earth element (normal water), 2 fire element (low water), 3 wind element (adequate water), and no remainder water element (abundant water). This year yields remainder 2, the fire element, signaling low water levels and drought risk.
Regarding agricultural yield, the Chulasakarat plus one is divided by seven, and the remainder corresponds to one of seven fertility levels. This year’s remainder is 2, which falls into the ‘disaster’ category, indicating that expected harvests may be reduced or partially lost.
Finally, the ‘Naga (serpent) water-giving criterion’ estimates rainfall. Ancient wisdom states that the more nagas there are, the less rain falls because they compete in doing the work; a single naga brings abundant rain. This year there are three nagas, reflecting rainfall and water quantities that remain insufficient to meet demand.
The heating world crisis and food security issues: realities beyond predictions
In reality, although current events are not caused by the Songkran predictions, they reflect aspects of the modern world’s conditions resulting from structural problems and environmental crises.
The ongoing drought and water shortages threatening us directly stem from climate variability. The World Meteorological Organization confirms this 'heating world' phenomenon, causing Thailand and many regions to face heatwaves, declining water levels in major reservoirs, and intermittent rainfall—all statistical facts demanding urgent government management.
Agricultural production problems also stem from rising temperatures disrupting planting cycles, while soaring costs of fuel and fertilizers increase expenses. These factors ripple through consumer goods prices, worsening inflation, living costs, and already heavy household debt.
Globally, economic turmoil caused by geopolitical issues and tense trade competitions directly affect energy prices and supply chains. These external factors are hard to control but have tangible impacts on Thai livelihoods.
Looking back at the Songkran predictions, one can link them to a recurring historical lesson: crises involving water, food, and livelihoods have repeatedly occurred throughout our history. However, today’s difference is that we possess data, statistics, and technologies far more accurate than before, enabling us to respond effectively. Thus, starting with structural policy solutions is the key to overcoming these crises.
Ultimately, economic and food security depend more on visionary leadership and efficient resource management than on any prediction.