The atmosphere of the 2026 election is beginning to spread. Although the current government is still in power, the movements of key figures and rank-and-file members in the Thai political arena never rest. This reshuffling is not merely a fight for parliamentary seats but a gamble on the "future" of both old and new power blocs.
Based on the latest assessments, political forces can be divided into four strategic groups that will directly influence the composition of the next government.
This is the "heavyweight" group with the most resources—momentum, ammunition, and strong local power bases. The battle here is for the leading role in government formation. Whoever wins first place gains the highest legitimacy.
Still riding the strongest "momentum" wave. If the two-ballot system remains, Prachachon will have a huge advantage in the Party List system. Their strategy is to sweep constituency MPs in major cities and penetrate weak local strongholds. If they secure over 160-180 seats, the political equation will change immediately. However, the critical point is their "allies." If they do not landlide over half (250+ seats), the chance of being isolated as opposition remains high.
The former champion who lost in 2023, the 2026 election is a matter of "Shinawatra family" pride. Their big challenge is to regain trust through economic achievements (digital wallets and wages). If successful, their "momentum" will rebound, combined with their still-solid local power bases. Pheu Thai stands a strong chance to return to first place but must guard against losing strongholds in the Northeast and North to Prachachon.
The "Teacher Leader Party" has grown to become the "nation’s major local power party." Bhumjaithai’s strategy of "strengthening foundations" is increasingly formidable, focusing less on social media momentum and more on "groundwork" and "vote networks." If Pheu Thai and Prachachon split urban votes, Bhumjaithai could be the "dark horse," sweeping the most constituency seats and possibly sending Anutin Charnvirakul to continue as prime minister for another term, potentially a full four years.
In a political math scenario with no clear majority, the party finishing fourth becomes the most sought-after "desirable partner," the final puzzle piece to ensure government stability.
A party seen as the new vessel for the "Colonel"—Lieutenant Colonel Thammanat Prompao's power bloc—or a splinter from the major local power group. Their rebranding and recruitment of top-grade MPs give them a chance to be a "medium-sized but powerful party." Expected to win 20-30 seats, or possibly more according to some forecasts, Kla Party could negotiate for ministerial portfolios exceeding their seat count, as they can side with either left or right.
An old political institution currently "rebuilding" under new leadership led by Abhisit Vejjajiva. Their tough challenge is to reclaim the South from Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation parties. If the Democrats hold steady at 25-30 seats, they will be a key variable. Their 2026 decisions will hinge less on ideology and more on survival, choosing alliances to revive the party.
This group is the most diverse, including both "rising rural stars" and "nationally declining stars."
Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and United Thai Nation Party face a crisis of faith now that the "uncle’s magic" has faded. Without "Uncle Tu" and "Uncle Pom" as magnets, they depend more on individual MPs’ influence than party momentum. Their MP numbers are expected to drop dramatically—from around 40 seats to possibly just a few dozen or less.
Prachachart Party is the strongest example, firmly holding the "three southern border provinces," securing 10+ seats for sure. This makes them a government coalition partner that everyone wants due to their stable and frozen voter base.
Meanwhile, Thai Sang Thai Party led by Khunying Sudarat still struggles to generate momentum against the two big blocs, but if they maintain bases in Bangkok or some Northeastern areas, they still have a chance.
Setthakit Party, Thai Khao Mai, and Okat Mai must capitalize on voter fatigue with old politics. If they can propose economic policies that resonate with the middle class, they could break through as 10-seat parties.
Under the two-ballot system, small parties are at a severe disadvantage but are not without presence. Their strategy must shift from "wide net casting" to "targeting the core" or "building niche identities."
• Sai Ruam Palang Party: A successful localist party model (Ubon Ratchathani) proving that a strong local power base can topple giants without joining major parties.
• Seri Ruam Thai Party: Still relying on the party leader’s integrity appeal but may need to heavily adjust strategies to reclaim party-list votes.
Additionally, there is Palawad Party, a new party led by Kanwee Suebsang who split from the Fair Party; Rakchat Party gaining momentum from "Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jes" on multiple platforms; and New Alternative Party, featuring "Tae Mongkolkitti" as a key figure, all with chances to win at least one seat to showcase their achievements.