A loud warning signal echoes across Thailand's political landscape as forecast numbers clearly indicate that the "old power bloc" is shaking, while a "new power bloc" is quietly but powerfully emerging.
From the perspectives of strategists and political experts, the game has already begun. The latest data gathered by Thairath Online from four top national sources—Assoc. Prof. Dr. Suwicha Paoaree (NIDA Poll), Dr. Satithorn Thananitichot (Chulalongkorn University), Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yuttaporn Isarachai (Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University), and Chuwit Kamolvisit—converge on the same view: the Blue party will dominate this election, while Pheu Thai is likely to fall below expectations.
The most striking insight from this data set is the consensus among these four experts who project the numbers for the Bhumjaithai Party to surge to between 140 and 150 seats.
This figure is not coincidental but the result of the "encircling strategy" firmly established by the Blue camp. Control over the Ministry of Interior and the accumulation of "local family" power bases nationwide have positioned Bhumjaithai as the most prepared party in terms of both resources and vote-gathering networks.
If these numbers hold true, Bhumjaithai will transform from a coalition partner in the previous election into a leading party forming the government immediately, becoming the key player deciding which parties to include in the coalition and shaping the direction and composition of the new cabinet.
Regarding the Orange camp, or the People's Party, it remains the favorite among young and urban voters. Experts estimate it will secure 100-130 seats, a decrease from the previous Move Forward Party's performance, as its popularity is not surging as dramatically as before.
Despite strong support, the challenge lies in the electoral system that still emphasizes constituency MPs—a strength of the local family strategy. Relying solely on "popularity" may be insufficient to achieve a landslide of over 250 seats, which means the People's Party might continue as the "strongest opposition" or await a more complex power shift.
The greatest concern centers on the Pheu Thai Party, once a perennial champion. Predictions from three of the four sources suggest Pheu Thai may fall below 100 seats (80-90 seats) or at best hover around 100-120 seats.
Analysis: Negative factors bombard the party from all sides, including the cross-bloc government formation causing loss of the Red Shirt base, underwhelming economic performance, and flagship policies like the digital wallet facing obstacles. If Pheu Thai cannot regain trust in the remaining time, the 2023 election might mark its transition into a "medium-sized party" in the political landscape.
Another noteworthy point is the Kla Tham Party, seen as a new vessel for the old power faction (aligned with Lt. Col. Thammanat). It is predicted to win 40-70 seats, enough to be a key player in government formation, while the Democrat Party's decline continues, possibly securing only 20-40 seats, reflecting an unsuccessful leadership renewal crisis.