Bangkok expects the coldest temperature to drop to 17 degrees Celsius, monitoring El Niño in 2026 which may cause Thailand to face three consecutive years of drought, with clear signals by mid-year. The central and southern regions are expected to be affected.
Thailand is experiencing ongoing climate fluctuations, including the influence of cold winds early in 2026 and long-term climate system changes that impact temperature, rainfall, and water resource management across many parts of the country.
Toward the end of January 2026, meteorological agencies are assessing the likelihood of El Niño occurring mid-year, which could lead to below-normal rainfall in Thailand and impact agriculture, particularly in non-irrigated areas requiring close monitoring.
A source from the Meteorological Department told Thairath Online’s special news team about the latest cold wind situation that after today (21 Jan 2026), the weather in Thailand will begin to cool again, with temperatures steadily dropping and expected to be coldest on 23 Jan 2026.
In Bangkok, the lowest temperature may fall to around 17 degrees Celsius, before gradually rising thereafter. The current cold wind episode is expected to continue until late January 2026, then transition to warmer seasonal weather.
Meanwhile, regarding the anticipated El Niño event in mid-2026, the Meteorological Department source said the overall El Niño pattern remains variable and is being closely monitored. It is expected to start affecting Thailand around June to July 2026, possibly causing a slight decrease in total rainfall compared to the previous year.
The overall weather conditions in 2026 are not expected to change significantly. However, between late 2027 and 2028, the situation may intensify, with El Niño projected to be strongest in 2028, potentially causing rainfall to drop clearly below levels seen during La Niña years.
Regionally, this year the southern areas, especially Chumphon and Surat Thani provinces, are likely to receive less rainfall than last year. The northeastern and northern regions have not been significantly affected yet, as water reserves in the northeast remain adequate. However, central and lower northeastern areas may experience some reduction in rainfall, particularly in non-irrigated zones dependent on rainfall.
The Meteorological Department source noted that if rainfall remains below average in 2027, it would mark two consecutive years of low rainfall in Thailand. Whether this correlates with the anticipated severity of El Niño in 2028 requires ongoing close monitoring and assessment.
However, it is assessed that both El Niño and La Niña phenomena can change at any time, as Thailand has not previously faced both phenomena under neutral conditions. Therefore, the overall 2027 weather may not differ significantly from 2026.
Authorities warn the public to prepare and plan ahead, especially regarding water usage and agriculture, as water shortages may occur—particularly in non-irrigated areas or regions that had low rainfall in 2025, such as Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Surat Thani provinces, which may be more severely affected than others.