The 2026 prime ministerial vote is expected to see Anutin selected with 291 to 293 votes, with close attention on potential 'turncoat' legislators. This vote on 19 March 2026 is a significant event following the 2026 general election, with notable score criteria and political circumstances as follows:
1. How many votes are required?
According to the constitution (after the Senate loses its authority to vote for the prime minister under transitional provisions), the prime minister will be elected solely by the House of Representatives (MPs) with the following criteria:
Decision criteria: the candidate must receive more than half of the total members currently sitting in the House of Representatives.
Estimated number: if there are 500 active MPs, the prime minister candidate must secure at least 251 votes (based on the latest political timeline indicating the winner needs at least 250 votes for stability assurance).
2. Trends and situation of the "Anutin 2" Cabinet
The current situation points to forming a government led by Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, with a bright outlook from consolidating votes from former coalition parties and new power blocs:
Support votes in hand: reports indicate that current government formation deals have gathered about 291 to 293 votes (including support from main coalition parties and some MPs from the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party who have publicly declared backing).
Advantage: Bhumjaithai recently won the House Speaker election with Sopon Sarum receiving 289 votes, reflecting unity within the blue government camp.
3. Will there be 'turncoat' votes for Anutin?
The issue of 'turncoats'—MPs crossing sides to add votes—is highly discussed this time:
The 'green snake' from the Kla Party: rumors circulate about courting MPs from the groups of Chalermchai Sri-on and Dech Isom Khaothong (who moved to Kla Party) to support Anutin. Although Lt. Col. Thammanat Prompao denied and called this group the 'burnt green snake,' politically they remain watched as a potential bloc pushing votes beyond 300.
Divisions from Pheu Thai and Ruam Thai Sang Chart: past voting statistics (e.g., February/March 2026) show some MPs from Pheu Thai and Ruam Thai Sang Chart are preparing to support Anutin in exchange for government participation or to advance specific policies.
Summary trend: there is a fairly high chance of support from MPs outside the main coalition ('turncoats') voting for Anutin to ensure the stability of the 'Anutin 2' government surpassing 300 votes, preventing leverage from other medium-sized parties.