No signs of a minimum wage increase in 2026. An academic views Thai workers as heavily burdened, facing a two-front battle: soaring living costs due to economic conditions and pressure from AI threatening to take their jobs.
The countdown begins to May 1, or “National Labor Day.” But this year, there are still no signals indicating a “minimum wage” increase amid various proposals and demands from labor sectors aiming to upgrade rights, improve quality of life, and mitigate impacts from the current economic situation.
Looking back 10 years ago, after the 300-baht wage policy announced in 2013 was frozen with no increases for four years due to its large initial jump and the political situation including a coup,
the next wage adjustment occurred in 2017 under Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government, raising wages to 300-310 baht. Since then, increases have occurred almost annually, especially in 2024-2025 when wage hikes happened twice a year. The latest minimum wage, effective from 1 July 2025, ranges from 354 to 400 baht depending on the area.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kiriya Kulkulgaran, an economics professor at Thammasat University specializing in labor economics and migrant workers, revealed that different labor groups have varying demands, and most this year do not emphasize minimum wage hikes. When mentioned, no specific figures like 600 or 700 baht are cited. This trend started around the February 2026 election, unlike previous elections where concrete wage increase figures were demanded.
This situation may stem from workers’ experience that even when they demand specific numbers, the final outcomes rarely meet those requests, or political parties promise minimum wage hikes during campaigns but fail to deliver on those figures.
“This aligns with the current economic situation, which is weak with rising costs. Therefore, demanding or pressuring for wage increases may not be timely, as employers, especially SMEs, likely cannot afford to pay more.”
If minimum wages are increased this year, it is believed there will be strong opposition from employers, particularly SMEs, who bear rising costs and whose business sales and growth have mostly stagnated this year.
Nevertheless, even without wage hikes, the government should implement policies to alleviate workers’ hardships, while the private sector and employers should avoid cutting rights, benefits, wages, or resorting to layoffs.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kiriya revealed that many demands during this Labor Day are longstanding issues labor groups have pushed for years without success, such as ratifying ILO Conventions Nos. 87 and 98 concerning freedom of association and the right to organize and bargain collectively without state interference or harassment, establishing risk insurance funds, and protecting the rights and welfare of contract workers.
New demands this year arise from current challenges workers face, including
the problem of “energy costs” being expensive, especially electricity costs, which have been a chronic issue. If the government promotes renewable energy use, solar panel installation, selling electricity back to the grid, or other high-cost measures, it must provide subsidies to help workers access these.
At the same time, the government should address electricity pricing issues caused by the EGAT's power purchase and sales structure to ensure greater fairness, transparency, and allow public scrutiny to confirm price appropriateness.
There is also the issue of increased “social security contributions.” This increase is deemed necessary for long-term sustainability, as maintaining current rates may be insufficient for managing funds and could lead to a lack of social security payouts in the future. However, raising contributions amid economic hardship and high living costs burdens workers and is expected to face resistance.
Social security must undergo reform to become independent, transparent, and financially sustainable, building trust among insured persons that their contributions are used efficiently and beneficially.
“The government must target cost-of-living support precisely at those truly in need, as its resources are limited and further borrowing is difficult given Thailand’s high debt.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kiriya stated that Thailand faces increasingly difficult years with slowing growth and no remarkable economic expansion since the “1997 Asian financial crisis.” Hence, wage increases are even less feasible.
Moreover, emerging technologies and ongoing AI advancements may replace workers not only in blue-collar industrial sectors, where robots may take over tasks, but also in white-collar office jobs, where employees face growing pressure and job insecurity.
“Office workers, especially those performing routine or repetitive tasks, risk being replaced or marginalized by technology, affecting their career advancement and job security. We already see this trend in banking with significant layoffs and early retirements, and such developments will continue. Workers must adapt by learning to use AI, gaining experience, and developing skills that AI cannot replicate.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kiriya concluded that other labor sector proposals the government should consider include protection measures for non-standard jobs like contract work, restructuring the tripartite minimum wage formula, reforming the Ministry of Labor’s management, and upgrading workforce skills to keep pace with changes.