The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC has experts observing a shake-up in the balance of power among oil producers, potentially paving the way for the U.S. to gain prominence. They indicate that any impact on oil prices, specifically a decrease, will require further observation over time, with possible benefits for Thailand.
Regarding the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announcing its withdrawal from the OPEC group, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a key global oil exporter, and the OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, effective from 1 May 2026, amid unrest in the Middle East due to conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. This move significantly disrupts the already fragile global oil supply chain.
The UAE statement explained, “This decision aligns with the UAE's strategic and long-term economic vision, including energy sector development and accelerating domestic energy production investments.”
The OPEC group accounts for 36-38% of global oil production and controls nearly 80% of proven oil reserves worldwide. Founded in 1960 by five oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela—its goal was to gain bargaining power against Western oil giants and protect resource owners’ interests by maintaining fair oil prices.
Currently, OPEC has 12 member countries beyond the original five founders. These include Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. Additionally, the OPEC+ alliance, led by Russia, includes nine more countries: Kazakhstan, Mexico, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei, Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, and South Sudan.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, over 60 years ago. It is currently the third-largest producer in the group after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, with a production quota of 3.2-3.6 million barrels per day. News of the UAE’s withdrawal has circulated periodically, as it has sought to increase its production quota, possessing the capacity to produce up to 4.8 million barrels daily and plans to exceed 5 million barrels in the near future.
At the same time, the UAE is a major oil supplier to Thailand. Data from 2025 shows Thailand’s energy imports from the UAE rank first in value at over 416 billion baht, accounting for 28.87% of total imports.
The Thairath Online special news team discussed this issue with Associate Professor Dr. At Phisanwanich, an independent academic and international economics expert, about the potential impacts on "oil prices," the global oil supply chain, and Thailand stemming from the UAE’s withdrawal.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. At explained that the UAE’s reason for leaving OPEC is to avoid production limits set at about 3 million barrels per day and to produce at full capacity of 5 million barrels daily, managing and selling oil independently to generate funds for national economic development.
Additionally, the UAE aims to use revenue to repair oil infrastructure damaged by Iranian attacks. This timing makes withdrawal the most appropriate and solid reason for leaving OPEC.
However, any effect on global oil supply or prices may not be immediate. It is expected that this withdrawal will lead to a future decline in global oil prices due to increased supply, though not significantly, as the UAE is not the largest producer in OPEC but ranks third or fourth.
"The UAE can produce up to 5 million barrels per day but was limited to a 3 million quota. If it reaches 5 million, global oil supply would increase by 2 million barrels daily, about 2% of the world's supply, which is not a large amount."
Assoc. Prof. Dr. At noted that even with increased production, currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Iran war conflict, while related oil pipeline infrastructure linking to the city of Fujairah used for transporting oil to the Gulf of Oman without passing through the Strait of Hormuz has been damaged by Iranian attacks, expected to take 6-12 months to repair. Thus, more definitive oil price impacts may be seen 5-6 months from now.
"Today, oil prices remain high, but once the war settles, it is expected to positively affect global oil prices."
Another possibility is the UAE negotiating with the U.S. and Iran to allow its oil tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, likely acceptable to the U.S. but requiring negotiation with Iran.
"The U.S. blockade of Hormuz targets Iranian oil exports, not GCC or OPEC countries. Therefore, the UAE can produce oil without U.S. obstruction, but the speed of infrastructure restoration and the duration of Iran's blockade are key factors."
Assoc. Prof. Dr. At pointed out that the UAE’s withdrawal definitely affects OPEC’s stability but may not cause its collapse, at least not in the near future. Several members have left previously, such as Indonesia and Qatar.
However, withdrawing during wartime carries psychological impacts suggesting OPEC countries or the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries lack unity. As members leave, OPEC’s total oil production share decreases, reducing its power to influence oil prices and opening space for the U.S. or Russia to play larger roles.
In the future, more countries may exit OPEC to gain freedom in oil production and sales without OPEC conditions.
"About six Middle Eastern countries are in OPEC and OPEC+. Two have left—UAE voluntarily and Iran involuntarily. Iraq or Kuwait might also leave eventually. If only Saudi Arabia remains, OPEC would lose all significance."
Assoc. Prof. Dr. At believes that oil shortages and high demand will persist for at least another year, so countries with resources but limited by OPEC quotas may withdraw to quickly boost production and revenue.
If OPEC truly loses power, the biggest beneficiary would be the United States, which is the world's largest oil producer, exceeding 10 million barrels per day. Although about 60% is for domestic use, the U.S. is actively operating oil companies abroad, such as in Venezuela, effectively exporting oil indirectly.
"In the UAE's case, U.S. oil companies may increasingly participate in development in exchange for enhanced military security, forming a new model combining oil production and security."
Assoc. Prof. Dr. At sees the UAE’s withdrawal as not directly affecting the war but influencing the pressure on oil prices, which may not align with Iran's aims, though the impact is limited due to the UAE's moderate global production share.
"Iran wants higher oil prices, the U.S. wants lower, and UAE’s increased output lowers prices slightly, so this does not significantly affect the conflict's intensity or development in the Middle East."
Given Thailand's large oil imports from the UAE, Assoc. Prof. Dr. At believes Thailand could gain positive leverage by negotiating directly with the UAE for oil purchases at mutually agreed prices without referencing OPEC terms, facilitated by their substantial prior trade volume.
However, due to the Strait of Hormuz constraints, any increased purchase negotiations would require Thailand to also engage with Iran to allow UAE oil tankers safe passage to Thailand.